coindesk.com
Bitcoin $BTC$82,742.29 fell to $83,000 on Monday, down 1.7% since midnight UTC and 2.1% over 24 hours, though it is the altcoin market taking the brunt of the damage, with 91 of the 100 CoinDesk 100 constituents lower on the day and the index down 2.6% to 1,874.56.
The unwind is almost a mirror image of Friday, with quant (QNT) falling 16% since midnight after rising 39% over 24 hours in Friday's session, indexing protocol token the graph GRT$0.03188 is down 12% having gained 14%, and tokenization token ondo ONDO$0.5148 is 12% lower. The sector indices that led the advance are leading the retreat, with the DeFi Select Index (DFX) down 6.4% and 7.3% over 24 hours while the CoinDesk Computing Index (CPUS) lost 3.2% and 5.0%.
The trigger sits in oil rather than in crypto, with President Donald Trump rejecting Iran's latest terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, conditions that included the release of frozen Iranian funds, the lifting of oil sanctions and an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude has climbed back above $100 to $100.83, up 3.2% on the day, reversing Friday's move below that level.
Traditional assets are being sold with crypto, gold down 3.3% to $4,144, silver 5.1% to $61.00 and U.S. equity futures lower, S&P 500 contracts off 0.44% and Nasdaq 100 down 0.95%, while the dollar index firmed 0.06% to 101.09.
Derivatives positioning
- Market-wide: Trading volume jumped 70% to $172 billion over 24 hours, while open interest (OI) fell 3% to $150 billion. Rising volume with falling OI points to positions being closed rather than new bets being placed.
- Taker flow: The 24-hour taker long/short ratio stood at 46.9% to 53.1% as of 09:50 UTC. Aggressive sellers have a slight edge.
- $BTC OI drops further: Futures OI has dropped to 650K $BTC, the lowest since March, as traders keep avoiding leverage. Funding rates are negative across major exchanges, so the positions that remain lean bearish.
- $ETH and $SOL follow $BTC’s lead: Ether OI fell to 12.85 million $ETH, down from 13.95 million on July 1 and a late-May peak above 15.65 million. That decline came even as $ETH rallied 68% since July 1, which means spot buying led the rally rather than leverage. $SOL futures show the same pattern.
- $XRP OI rises: OI hit a four-week high of 2.46 billion $XRP early today and has since eased to 2.37 billion.
- Whale bias: Binance whales, measured by their long versus short positions, are bullish on $BTC, down from extremely bullish on Friday. They have flipped bearish on $ETH and remain bullish on $SOL. $XRP is bearish again, though less so than Friday's extremely bearish reading.
- $HBAR OI hits record high: OI surged to a record 2.30 billion $HBAR while the spot price rose 48% in 24 hours, which suggests fresh longs. However, the 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta is negative and annualized funding sits just above zero. Aggressive buyers are not powering the move, and shorts may be piling in against the rally.
- Volatility slightly up: Volmex's BVIV, the 30-day implied volatility index for $BTC, rose slightly to 37.4% after bouncing off the sub-36% floor it tested last week. The move is small, and traders still expect calm markets. Ether's EVIV shows the same. Wall Street's VIX rose to 16 on Friday from under 14.
- Mixed volume profile in options: On Deribit, the $84,000 strike bitcoin put expiring Sept. 30 was the most traded contract over 24 hours. Put options are used to hedge against declines in prices for the underlying asset, in this case, bitcoin. For $ETH, the $2,850 call expiring Oct. 20 led activity, which shows appetite for upside.
