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$XRP Repeats Historical Bull-Trap Structure as Weekly Price Tests $1.70.
The Crypto Basic found that $XRP’s weekly structure is repeating a sequence visible in two earlier market cycles: major decline, aggressive rebound, failed recovery, extended range, and finally a durable base before the next large expansion.
The important point in the current chart is that the $0.98 low should not automatically be classified as $XRP’s final cycle base. Based on the historical structure, $XRP is still in the rebound/testing portion of the cycle.
What the Previous $XRP Cycles Show
In the first historical sequence, $XRP recorded an approximately 103.78% rebound following its initial decline. That recovery did not develop directly into a sustained markup. Price rolled over and eventually entered a much longer consolidation around $0.20–$0.40.
That lower range became the more important structural base. The subsequent expansion produced the chart’s approximately 16x advance.
The second sequence followed a comparable pattern. $XRP initially recovered approximately 76.42%, but that rebound also failed to establish a sustained uptrend. $XRP Price returned toward a lower trading range and spent considerable time building a base.
Only after that consolidation was completed did the larger expansion occur, producing the approximately 10x move highlighted on the chart.
$XRP Is Currently in the Middle of the Sequence
The present cycle began with $XRP falling from above $3 toward approximately $0.98.
From $0.98, $XRP then rebounded approximately 72.79%, carrying the weekly price toward $1.69–$1.70.
The percentage is notable because the current 72.79% rebound is already approaching the magnitude of the previous 76.42% recovery. Both are substantially below the earlier 103.78% rebound, but all three demonstrate that $XRP can produce very large countertrend advances before a longer-term base is established.
The Crypto basic reading of the structure therefore places $XRP in the post-markdown rebound/testing stage, not yet in a confirmed long-term markup.
Has the Real $XRP Base Formed?
Not on this chart yet.
The $0.98 wick represents the lowest point of the latest decline, but a low and a completed base are different structures.
In both previous examples, $XRP first bounced sharply from a low. The market then returned to a prolonged range where repeated price tests established the area that eventually became the launchpad for the next expansion.
The current structure has completed the first two parts:
Decline to $0.98 → 72.79% rebound toward $1.70.
What is still missing is the prolonged stabilization and retesting phase visible after the previous bull-trap rebounds.
Wyckoff Cycle Reading
The move from the 2025 high above $3 toward $0.98 represents the chart’s markdown phase. The rebound from $0.98 toward $1.70 is the subsequent recovery.
At present, we would classify $XRP as transitioning from late markdown into an early potential accumulation/trading-range process. There is not enough price structure on the chart to classify it as established markup.
The latest $1.69–$1.70 region is therefore the critical structural test on this chart. A rejection would make the present sequence resemble the previous failed rebounds more closely. Sustained weekly acceptance beyond this region would instead separate the current structure from those historical bull-trap examples.
Because the chart contains no volume panel, this classification is based entirely on weekly price structure rather than volume confirmation.