thecryptobasic.com
$XRP exchange data indicates that the token’s supply may actually be dropping on the Binance exchange despite recent whale inflows.
$XRP entered Sept. 22 at an important point after climbing to $1.57 in the previous session and then pulling back to $1.51 at press time. While the pullback could look like a sign that the recent rally is losing strength, the data behind $XRP’s supply remains bullish.
Binance Is Losing $XRP Supply
$XRP currently trades at $1.5176, while its daily range stands between $1.5062 and $1.5398. However, the more important development comes from Binance.
Specifically, $XRP inflows to the exchange have fallen 20.37%, while outflows have declined 25.96%. Because outflows have dropped by a larger amount than inflows, Binance has recorded a net negative flow of roughly 102,912 $XRP.
This is important because $XRP held on an exchange remains readily available for trading and selling. When holders move $XRP from Binance into private wallets, they reduce the amount of supply immediately available on the market.
As a result, the current flow data suggests that some holders are moving their $XRP away from exchanges instead of selling into the recent price recovery. The fact that this decline in exchange reserves comes during a price rally is also important.
$XRP Whale Flows Show Increased Activity
Nonetheless, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain recently reported that large-wallet inflows to Binance reached about 1.6 billion $XRP over the previous 30 days. This marked the highest cumulative reading since March, after whale activity weakened through May, June, and July.
However, Binance’s $XRP reserve has not risen by a similar amount. The exchange ended the week with 2,630,628,140 $XRP, just 0.22% above its quarterly baseline and 0.34% higher than the previous week.
The increase in whale inflows with the relatively small change in reserves suggests increased turnover and repositioning, not a wave of selling. Whales are moving large amounts of $XRP, but the data does not yet confirm distribution.
$XRP Market Cap Remains Elevated
The market cap data also confirms a less bearish reading of the correction. $XRP’s fully diluted market cap, which counts all tokens in existence, climbed from around $103 billion earlier in the rally to more than $150 billion at the peak. It has since fallen back to around $138.97 billion.
The market cap based on $XRP’s circulating supply currently sits closer to $94 billion. Despite the pullback from the rally’s peak, the market cap remains relatively high while net exchange flows remain negative.
This suggests that the correction has not yet produced a fresh wave of selling strong enough to significantly increase $XRP supply on exchanges.
September Seasonality Could Still Weigh on $XRP
There is, however, one risk in the current setup: $XRP’s September seasonal record. In seven of the last eight years, $XRP’s September performance moved in the opposite direction of its August performance.
On the two occasions when August ended with a gain, September followed with declines of 14% in 2020 and 19.6% in 2021.
This pattern is particularly relevant this year because $XRP gained 30% in August, marking its strongest August performance since 2021. Seasonal trends do not determine $XRP’s next move, but the historical pattern may add another headwind as the token enters the final stretch of September.
For now, the underlying data does not show a clear breakdown. The next important level on the upside is $1.55. A clean break above that level could open the way toward $1.68. On the other hand, buyers need to defend the $1.4860 support zone to keep the current structure intact.