thecryptobasic.com
Historical data suggests that while $XRP could build on the August rally against Bitcoin in September, the asset may face a drawdown in October.
$XRP has continued to lag behind Bitcoin, despite briefly gaining the upper hand during the market’s rebound two weeks ago.
The recent outperformance did not last, as $XRP has spent the past two weeks falling behind Bitcoin again. The $XRP/$BTC pair currently trades at 0.00001754, which puts it 48% below its January 2025 high of 0.00003415.
However, market commentator EGRAG Crypto believes $XRP’s weakness against Bitcoin could continue into October 2026. At the same time, he expects $XRP to build on its 4% gain in August 2026 and potentially make another move higher against Bitcoin in September 2026.
$XRP Could See a September Rally Against Bitcoin
EGRAG recently called attention to a strong seasonal pattern for $XRP/$BTC during the final months of the year.
Notably, based on historical monthly averages, $XRP has gained 17.0% in September, while October has recorded an average decline of 19.6%. The trend then turns positive again, with November averaging a 30.5% gain and December averaging a 44.1% gain.
However, EGRAG believes the sequence is more important than the averages themselves. Historically, September has marked a rotation, October has brought a shakeout, November has seen expansion, and December has produced further acceleration.
If the pattern plays out again, $XRP could begin gaining ground against Bitcoin in September before facing another decline in October.
October Has Been a Difficult Month for $XRP Against Bitcoin
October has historically been one of the weaker months for $XRP against Bitcoin. The $XRP/$BTC pair finished lower in 11 of the last 13 Octobers, making it a period that investors may need to watch.
However, an October decline does not necessarily mean that $XRP would enter a longer bearish phase. Previous years show that sharp losses in October have sometimes been followed by much stronger moves in November.
For example, $XRP/$BTC fell 22.4% in October 2020, only to jump 93.8% in November. A similar pattern appeared in 2024, when the pair dropped 24.9% in October before rising an impressive 179.2% in November.
These past moves suggest that another October correction would not automatically weaken the broader case for $XRP. However, it could become part of a larger rotation that eventually favors $XRP against Bitcoin.
$XRP Has Lagged Bitcoin for Most of 2026
$XRP’s performance against Bitcoin this year also shows how much the pair has struggled. $XRP/$BTC fell 0.5% in January 2026 and another 1.8% in February. The decline hit 4.4% in March and then reached 8.8% in April.
$XRP managed to post a 1.0% gain in May, but the recovery did not last. The pair fell another 2.0% in June and 4.8% in July. August finally brought some relief, as $XRP/$BTC gained nearly 4.0%.
This leaves $XRP with a long record of underperformance against Bitcoin during 2026, despite the improvement seen in August.
August Breakout Could Set the Tone
The next major question is whether the 4% gain in August 2026 marks the start of a broader $XRP/$BTC rotation. EGRAG believes a break above the pair’s August high could provide an important signal.
If this happens, $XRP could continue its recovery against Bitcoin in September 2026. The move could then face resistance in October, in line with the historical shakeout pattern, before $XRP potentially sees stronger performance in November and December.
History does not guarantee that $XRP/$BTC will follow the same pattern in 2026. However, $XRP’s prolonged weakness against Bitcoin and the recent August rebound may be setting the stage.