coindesk.com
Bitcoin $BTC$78,432.93 is holding around the $78,000 level despite a broader risk-off move after the first U.S. strikes against Iran for more than a month sent oil higher and stocks lower.
The cryptocurrency is still up more than 24% for August, the best performance for the month since 2017 and the biggest one-month gain since November 2024. Over the past 24 hours, it’s added 0.5%, while the broader market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, lost 0.75%.
Stock markets are seeing mixed performance. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.46%. Both Germany’s DAX and U.S. stock futures are pointing lower.
Standing out are oil prices. Brent crude jumped to more than $90 per barrel after U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers, and faced retaliation in the form of strikes in its local military bases. Gold, meanwhile, receded to $4,440 per ounce.
The oil rally adds to inflation concerns after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech lifted the probability of a September rate increase to 58%.
Derivatives positioning
- Taker ratio stays balanced, volume surges on flat OI: The 24-hour taker volume is balanced between longs and shorts while 24-hour volume more than doubled to $183 billion. Open interest (OI) remains around $136 billion, a sign of churn rather than fresh positioning.
- Liquidations top $431 million, ether leads: Total liquidations reached $431 million, with ether accounting for $130 million of that, ahead of bitcoin's $100 million. SOL, XRP and $ZEC were the other major losers.
- $XMR shows signs of an overheated long build-up: Monero‘s ($XMR) futures OI has risen 15% to 637,000 tokens, the most since February 2024, according to data source Coinglass. The privacy-focused token’s price has gained 12% in 24 hours. That combination points to a build-up of long positions, traders adding leverage to magnify gains from the rally. Still, the market looks overheated, with annualized perpetual funding rates near 100%. That level reflects an elevated cost of holding longs and likely overcrowding in the trade. If the rally stalls, the funding cost could become a burden, potentially triggering a mass unwind of longs and a sharp slide in price.
- $UNI shows a similar bullish setup, without the overheating: OI in $UNI futures has also risen, increasing 12% as the spot price added 5% over 24 hours, a bullish pattern similar to $XMR's. The key difference: $UNI isn't overheated at all, with perpetual funding rates pinned near 2%, making it look far less prone to a sudden volatility spike.
- $ZEC, SHIB and DOGE lead OI losers: All three saw OI decline over the past 24 hours, though the capital outflows involved have been modest.
- $BTC and ETH positioning stays moderate: OI in $BTC futures remains moderate, hovering below 700,000 versus a June 4 peak of 801,000. Ether shows a similar pattern.
- CVD points to broad bearish pressure, with two exceptions: The 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is negative across most of the largest coins, indicating sellers are acting more aggressively, hitting market orders rather than resting on passive limit orders. $XMR and $UNI are the only two names showing positive CVD.
- $BTC volatility index retreats, pointing to calmer conditions: $BTC's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has dropped to under 40%, reversing a spike from 39% to nearly 50% over the three days through Aug. 21. That reversal suggests renewed expectations of market calm alongside continued bullish price action. Ether's equivalent index showed a similar pattern.
- Options flow shows some hedging caution: On Deribit, 24-hour volume rankings show bitcoin puts at the $70,000, $73,000 and $74,000 strikes occupying the top spots, pointing to some caution in the market. Puts are used to hedge against price weakness in the underlying asset. The same pattern holds for ether options.
Token Talk
- Uniswap ($UNI) is the standout performer over the past 24 hours, rising 6.9%. The move coincides with onchain data showing Uniswap processed more than $1.5 billion of tokenized stock trades on Robinhood Chain so far.
- PancakeSwap CAKE$1.8699 also gained 6.9% over the same period, though there’s no clear new catalyst behind the move.
- Dash DASH$43.94 rose 3.4%, while bitcoin cash BCH$247.31 added 1.3%, and bitcoin gained 0.7%.
- Prom (PROM) was the clear downside outlier, dropping 18% as traders took profits following a speculative rally. The token remains more than 100% higher over seven days despite the decline, with no adverse project-specific development identified.