Crypto market sets odds of XRP’s new record high

Prediction market participants are assigning low odds to $XRP reaching a new all-time high in 2026, amid the cryptocurrency’s struggle to establish a sustained move above the $1 mark.

Data from a Polymarket contract titled “$XRP all time high by ___?” shows traders currently assign a 7% probability that the asset will set a new record price by December 31, 2026.

The odds are even lower for an earlier breakout, with the September 30, 2026 contract implying just a 1% chance of a new high.

The market’s skepticism comes as $XRP remains below its all-time high of $3.84, reached in January 2018.

The latest probabilities also represent a sharp decline in sentiment. To this end, the September contract has fallen 30%, while the year-end contract is down 44%, indicating traders have become less confident about $XRP’s ability to stage a record-breaking rally before 2027.

Although prediction market traders remain cautious, $XRP continues to attract attention from investors monitoring potential catalysts that could support higher prices.

Most notably, broader strength across the cryptocurrency market remains the main factor that could drive $XRP higher. The token has historically been sensitive to shifts in overall crypto sentiment, particularly movements in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

However, $XRP has struggled to maintain momentum following its late-July rally, with prices consolidating around the psychologically important $1 support level.

$XRP would need to gain more than 280% from current levels to surpass its all-time high of $3.84. However, prediction market traders currently view that outcome as unlikely in 2026, assigning it just a 7% probability by year-end.

$XRP improving on-chain fundamentals

Meanwhile, despite the subdued bullish outlook, on-chain data points to increased activity across the $XRP network.

According to Santiment data shared by analyst Ali Martinez on August 12, the number of active $XRP addresses has surged 84.18% since August 1, rising from 23,642 to 43,543. The increase marks one of the strongest spikes in network participation this month and suggests growing engagement across the $XRP Ledger.

In this regard, the rise in active addresses adds to a broader trend of strengthening $XRP Ledger fundamentals. Recent on-chain data has shown sustained growth in wallet activity, network usage, and address creation despite periods of price weakness.

Historically, rising active addresses have been viewed as a sign of increasing network utility and user participation.

However, stronger on-chain activity has yet to translate into a sustained price breakout. As of press time, $XRP was trading at $1.02, up nearly 2% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, however, the cryptocurrency remains down more than 3%.

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