Large exchange outflows are often seen as a sign that investors are moving assets into private wallets for long-term holding. However, PelinayPA said the current decline is not a bullish accumulation signal. That’s because whale outflows themselves have become unusually rare.

The same pattern is visible on the inflow side. Large $XRP deposits to Binance have also dropped sharply, suggesting whales are not moving tokens to exchanges to sell. As a result, near-term selling pressure appears much lower than in previous market cycles.
Market Stuck in a Waiting Phase
With both exchange inflows and outflows declining, PelinayPA said there is little evidence of either aggressive accumulation or large-scale distribution.
Instead, the analyst described the market as being in a “waiting phase”. Lower liquidity and weaker trading activity are making it harder for $XRP to establish a clear trend in either direction.
One of the clearest signs is the sharp decline in transactions exceeding 1 million $XRP. Both inflows and outflows in this category have fallen, suggesting major holders are largely inactive.
Retail Traders Drive Most Activity
Despite weaker whale participation, transactions between 1,000 and 10,000 $XRP still account for most network activity. This suggests retail traders remain the market’s main participants.
However, PelinayPA noted that previous $XRP bull markets were driven largely by high-volume whale activity rather than retail flows. Until institutions or large holders return with fresh capital, the analyst expects $XRP to remain in a relatively quiet, range-bound market.
$XRP Open Interest on Binance Falls to Lowest Since 2024.
Meanwhile, $XRP futures open interest on Binance has dropped to its lowest level since 2024, falling to about $370 million, according to CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain. The decline appears specific to $XRP, as Binance’s broader derivatives market remains active.
The drop suggests traders are closing leveraged $XRP positions amid uncertainty following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. While lower open interest doesn’t signal a bullish or bearish trend, it reflects a more cautious market, reducing liquidation risk but also indicating weaker confidence.
Arab Chain noted that a rebound in both $XRP’s price and open interest would suggest fresh capital is returning, while continued declines would signal ongoing trader caution.