coindesk.com
Quantum computing is a risk factor for every encrypted system on the planet, including major banks. But crypto, due to the way it works, may be the technology that gets tested first.
"Cryptocurrencies are the canary in the coal mine," Eddy Zervigon, CEO of Quantum Xchange, said in an interview with CoinDesk. Zervigon's firm builds infrastructure to shield networks, including financial ones, from quantum-enabled attacks, and he's blunt about where the first casualty is likely to show up.
"That's the first place of attack because of the decentralized nature," Zervigon said. "Once you see it happening there, then you know that someone somewhere has a cryptographically relevant quantum computer."
A cryptographically relevant quantum computer, capable of breaking the elliptic-curve cryptography underpinning the Bitcoin blockchain's signatures, along with the encryption securing bank rails, doesn't exist yet. The consensus estimate for when it will is compressing, not stretching.
"The folks spending billions of dollars, like Microsoft, IBM, and others developing quantum computers, generally believe there will be a commercially relevant, cryptographically relevant quantum computer in the 2029 timeframe," Zervigon said. "That's not me making stuff up. That's based on what people like Arvind Krishna at IBM have said."
That estimate is consistent with recent hardware developments. Earlier this year, Google researchers revealed that breaking the elliptic-curve cryptography safeguarding top cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ether would require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, a 20-fold decline from previous estimates. That prompted several observers, including Google, to pull forward the so-called Q-Day deadline to 2029.
The White House, meanwhile, is aiming to develop a powerful quantum computer by 2028 and shift high-value assets and federal data to post-quantum cryptography by 2030. "That sets the clock. It creates a sense of urgency,” Zervigon said.
Consensus speed is the real risk factor
Zervigon isn't alone in pointing to slow governance, not cryptography, as crypto's weak point.
Deutsche Digital Assets framed it as a clear cut speed differential between TradFi and decentralized rails.
"The difference — and this is the honest answer to the 'Bitcoin is uniquely vulnerable' narrative — is governance speed," the bank wrote on July 23.
It explained that an investment bank like JPMorgan does not need to get a go ahead from millions of pseudonymous global participants before upgrading its cryptographic infrastructure.
“It needs a board resolution, a budget, and a vendor. Large financial institutions can and will migrate to post-quantum standards faster, more quietly, and more predictably than a decentralised public blockchain. That is not an argument against Bitcoin. It is an argument for taking its governance process seriously,” Deutsche Digital Assets added.