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$XRP is showing deleveraging signs that resemble the conditions before its sharp rally in late 2024.
Recent market data shows a decline in speculative trading, with Binance’s estimated leverage ratio (ELR) dropping to 0.16, one of its lowest readings since November 2024.
For the uninitiated, the estimated leverage rating metric compares open interest with exchange reserves to show how much leverage traders are using.
The current figure is also close to the April 2026 low of 0.15, which appeared during $XRP’s earlier correction. Meanwhile, amid these conditions, $XRP has dropped about 70% from its 2025 high of $3.6 and now trades around $1.10.
What Lower Leverage Means for $XRP
The decline in the ELR mainly indicates a drop in leveraged futures positions, not necessarily changes in spot holdings.
As the market corrected, many leveraged trades were closed, causing open interest to fall. Binance’s $XRP open interest now stands at about $375 million, below the highs seen over the past year.
This sort of deleveraging often leaves the market in a healthier position. Notably, high leverage increases the risk of forced liquidations, where one liquidation triggers another and causes sharp price swings.
However, when leverage falls, that risk becomes smaller. As a result, the market tends to become more stable, giving future price moves a stronger foundation. Current derivatives data suggests speculative trading has cooled, leaving the market far less overheated than it was before.
The Current Situation Looks Similar to 2024
The present market structure shares several similarities with the period before $XRP’s late-2024 rally. During the middle of 2024, $XRP traded near $0.40 while the estimated leverage ratio gradually dropped to around 0.05, the lowest point of that cycle.
While the price moved within a narrow range for months, the derivatives market quietly reset before buying momentum returned.
This reset eventually led to a rally of more than 790%, lifting $XRP above $3.6 as leverage gradually increased alongside the price.
If $XRP were to repeat the same percentage gain from its current price of about $1.10, it would reach roughly $9.80. However, this figure only represents a mathematical comparison with the previous rally and should not be viewed as a price prediction.
Institutional forecasts remain much more cautious. Standard Chartered recently lowered its year-end 2026 $XRP target from $8 to $2.8, but the bank maintained its 2030 target at $28.
$XRP Sees Bullish Whale Activity
On-chain activity also points to growing confidence among large investors. Whale wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion $XRP added about 1.3 billion $XRP within a 48-hour period in early March 2026.
Large amounts of $XRP also continued leaving exchanges. On March 10, investors moved roughly $738 million worth of $XRP into cold wallets in a single day, making it one of the largest exchange outflows of the year.
Whale buying remained strong through April, when the biggest holders purchased more than 11 million $XRP each day, marking the fastest pace of accumulation in around 10 months.
The trend continued into July. Transfers of more than 1 million $XRP on Coinbase increased from about 10% of all withdrawals on June 16 to 25.7% by July 1. Data also shows that more than 90% of $XRP leaving exchanges now goes into private wallets controlled by large holders instead of returning to trading platforms.