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Prediction markets are increasingly betting that $XRP will finish July 2026 above $1.20, according to data from Polymarket.
With less than 28 days remaining before the contract expires, traders currently assign a 70% probability that $XRP will close the month above the $1.20 level.
The market, titled “What price will $XRP hit in July?”, reflects a largely bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency, although traders expect limited upside beyond current levels.
At the time of the snapshot, $XRP was trading around $1.14, having climbed steadily from near $1.05 at the start of July. The token gained roughly 8.5% over the period, signaling improving market sentiment.
At the same time, traders see a 16% chance of $XRP reaching $1.40, while the probability drops to 4% for $1.60 and 3% for $1.80.
The market assigns just a 1% probability to $XRP reaching $2 or higher during the month. Targets above $2.20 are also priced at around 1% or less, suggesting traders expect any rally to remain relatively contained.
Meanwhile, bearish outcomes appear less likely. The probability of the cryptocurrency falling below $1 is 38%, while the probability of dropping below $0.80 is estimated at 5%. Markets assign just 2% odds to $XRP falling below $0.60 before the end of July.
Overall, traders expect $XRP to extend its gains and finish July above $1.20, while remaining below $1.40. Although the market sees modest upside from the current $1.14 level, the odds of a rally toward $2 remain low.
$XRP price analysis
By press time, $XRP was trading at $1.14, up about 3.55% over the past 24 hours and nearly 8% on the weekly timeframe.
From a technical perspective, $XRP’s nearest support lies between $1.08 and $1.10, a zone bulls need to defend to keep the current recovery intact.
Below that, the $1.00 to $1.05 range serves as a major psychological and structural support area. A decisive break below $1 could trigger increased selling pressure and expose $XRP to a decline toward $0.90–$0.93.
The $0.90 to $0.98 region represents a deeper support zone and would likely invalidate the current rebound thesis if breached.
On the upside, $XRP faces immediate resistance at $1.15, where a key trendline converges. A strong daily close above this level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to a move toward $1.20, the next significant resistance level.
Beyond that, traders are watching the $1.35–$1.40 range as a major medium-term barrier.