Cardano Price Prediction: Can SecondFi’s Recovery Plan Pull ADA Out Of Its Slump?

Cardano trades at $0.1449 on June 29, up 0.8% as broader risk appetite improves following a US-Iran ceasefire agreement. $ADA remains deep in a downtrend, but recovery progress on the SecondFi exploit and steady exchange outflows are giving holders something to point to.

Is $ADA Still Trapped In Its Supertrend Downtrend?

The daily chart shows $ADA locked inside a Supertrend (10,3) downtrend that has capped every bounce since February, with the indicator currently reading $0.1715, well above spot. Price broke a long-standing support zone between $0.20 and $0.245 in early June and has been grinding sideways in the $0.14-$0.18 range since.

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The RSI Divergence tool flags a bullish setup forming again near current levels, similar to the pattern that preceded the December and March bounces. RSI sits at 29.60, deep in oversold territory. Key levels: support at $0.1417 and the psychological $0.14 floor, resistance at $0.1715 on the Supertrend line and then $0.2451 above that.

Is SecondFi’s Hack Recovery Actually On Track?

SecondFi confirmed its recovery process remains within the estimated two-week timeline, with engineers testing multiple technical approaches in parallel. The platform plans to release a tool by early next week letting users check whether their wallet was affected, followed by a secure process for withdrawing assets. SecondFi reiterated it will never request private keys, seed phrases or asset transfers, and warned that scammers have been impersonating the project since the hack.

The exploit drained roughly 16 million $ADA worth $2.4 million from 374 addresses between June 21 and June 23. EMURGO CEO Phillip Pon said the company completed a forensic review and found what he called a clear recovery solution, with one week needed to build the system and another to test it before returns begin. SecondFi also moved 129 million $ADA to a third-party custodian as a precaution during the review.

Why Are Exchange Outflows Rising During $ADA’s Worst Month?

$ADA has shed almost 40% over the past four weeks, but on-chain data shows the most recent week logged the largest exchange supply removal seen in June, with roughly $11.22 million worth of $ADA, close to 70-100 million tokens, pulled off exchanges. That’s a sign holders are moving into self-custody rather than positioning to sell into further weakness.

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Separately, two prominent Cardano DReps stepped down from governance roles this month, a development analysts characterize as a minor optics hit rather than a structural risk given Cardano’s roughly 3,000 stake pool operators. On the macro side, a senior US official confirmed late Sunday that the US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks, with both sides set to meet Tuesday in Qatar, a development that lifted futures and pressured oil lower heading into the new week.

Cardano Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets for June 30

• Upside case: Risk sentiment improves further on the US-Iran truce, $ADA reclaims the Supertrend line at $0.1715, and pushes toward $0.20.
• Downside case: The ceasefire proves fragile or BTC weakens again, sending $ADA through $0.1417 toward the $0.12 region.