ambcrypto.com
Aave [$AAVE] was one of the tokens that saw a strong bounce earlier this month following a sharp price crash at the start of June. The $AAVE recovery measured 34.86% from the $57.83 low to the $77.99 local high. The size of this bounce should not confuse investors into thinking that a recovery is imminent.
Based on the price action, further bearish continuation appeared likely. Such a continuation may have already begun over the past 24 hours. The DeFi token shed 5.74% in 24 hours, and its daily trading volume was up 23%. Additionally, the Open Interest has crept lower by 6.20%.
Together, the volume signs point toward intensifying selling pressure. Examining longer-term price trends can help explain why $AAVE is likely to trade at lower levels in the coming weeks.
Reasons why $AAVE bears are in control
Recently, AMBCrypto reported a Grayscale Research prediction that Aave could trade at $175. The report suggested that the token was currently fairly priced based on the conventional discounted cash flow [DCF] analysis.
However, in the scenario where regulatory clarity accelerates tokenized asset adoption, $AAVE’s price could go to the aforementioned target.
The price structure was bearish on the 1-day timeframe after breaking the $85.05 low toward the end of May [orange]. The OBV has been in a downtrend in 2026, with some gains made in April and May. This indicated a brief spurt of buying, but not enough to change the long-term trend.
The $77.95 and $51.81 levels were key horizontal ones from the previous cycle. They served as support back in 2023 and 2024, but the former was tested as resistance in recent days. $AAVE faced rejection at $78 and is likely to go towards $50 next.
Traders’ call to action- Sell
The Fibonacci retracement level at $78.43 coincided nicely with the weekly horizontal level, as does the 23.6% southward extension level at $51.64. As things stand, these are the price levels to watch based on the 4-hour chart.
The sustained downtrend, combined with the rejection from $78, meant a move toward $50 can be expected.
CryptoQuant data showed a positive shift in the 7-day moving average of exchange netflows. This indicated increased inflows as Aave token prices bounced to $78, signaling an intent to sell from the holders.
Final Summary
- A support level that served as the launchpad for the 2024 price rally has just been retested as resistance.
- Profit-taking and the bearish long-term structural implication were signs that $AAVE would decline toward $50 in the coming weeks.