Aerodrome Finance: Is AERO’s 28% YTD rally running out of steam?

Aerodrome Finance [$AERO] has recorded one of its strongest runs in recent weeks, with the asset up 28% on a year-to-date basis.

Its financial statements show the protocol holding up well, as weekly fees generated $1.78 million and token holder incentives reached $14.73 million, both feeding into the asset’s broader growth. However, concerns are mounting, with bearish momentum building in a way that could weigh on overall performance.

$AERO momentum turns bearish on the daily chart

$AERO has slipped into a bearish phase on its daily chart, a shift that points to potential capital outflows over the coming days.

At press time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforced that trend, signaling a likely bearish flip within the next couple of days as the blue MACD line crossed below the orange signal line. Crossovers of this kind have often preceded declines once they take shape.

This aligns with the Bull Bear Power indicator flipping to a red histogram bar after roughly 15 bars of bullish dominance. The move into negative territory hints at growing selling pressure across the market.

The chart also marks two demand zones where $AERO could find balance. The first sits between $0.49 and $0.47, while the lower zone runs from $0.44 to $0.42. Either could lend the asset some stability should a decline set in.

Perpetual traders stay long against the pressure

Despite the bearish pressure across the market, the average Funding Rate has stayed positive at around 0.0059%, a sign that long positions slightly dominate capital in the perpetual market.

A tilt toward longs typically reflects trader conviction that an asset will rally in the near term, promising stronger returns on the capital committed to the trade.

That build-up in long positions follows heavy capital exits over the past day. Open interest, which gauges the capital active in the market, has fallen 12% to $56 million.

The drop confirms that many traders closed their positions during the period, largely on volatility concerns, even as Funding Rates show the remaining capital still leaning long.

Liquidation levels keep $AERO’s downside risk elevated

A reading of the liquidation map shows $AERO’s odds of a further drop remain on the higher side. The pressure stems largely from cumulative liquidation leverage stacked at levels below the current price.

The heavier that cumulative leverage, the stronger the downward pull, particularly when momentum is already exiting the market.

That leverage thickens further down the price range, deepening the pull to the downside. With selling momentum already running high, the pressure could intensify.

Final Summary

• $AERO has climbed 28% so far this year, with healthy protocol fees and token incentives behind the run, but the momentum is starting to cool.
• Traders are still betting on more upside even as money leaves the market, a split that often shows up right before a pullback.