Looking beyond Bitcoin, he noted that activity across major blockchain networks has continued to weaken. While stablecoin transfers remain relatively strong, most other forms of on-chain activity have slowed, leaving many of the largest networks in negative growth territory.
“That is the fundamental rationale for why the price is going down,” Coutts said.
Coutts said crypto has been in a downtrend since January based on Real Vision’s trend indicators and weekly chart analysis.
He pointed to the major market sell-off in early February, when several capitulation signals flashed across both on-chain and derivatives data. While those indicators suggested a significant low had formed, Coutts said major market flushes often lead to another leg lower before a true recovery begins.
According to him, the recent 25% to 30% rally was more consistent with a typical bear market bounce than the start of a new bull run.
His Top Altcoin Picks
The main point of Coutts’ thesis is not that crypto is dead. Rather, he argues that investors are becoming more selective about where they allocate capital.
Instead of focusing on the largest assets, he highlighted projects such as $NEAR, Venice, Hyperliquid, and Zcash, where activity and usage continue to improve.
Coutts pointed to $NEAR’s work in AI infrastructure and interoperability as one example. He said the protocol has made meaningful progress in solving blockchain’s long-standing interoperability challenges while positioning itself for future AI-driven applications.
Meanwhile, Zcash stands out because growing AI adoption could increase demand for privacy and security-focused networks.
As a result, Coutts expects investors to pay closer attention to fundamentals and on-chain activity going forward. In his view, the next generation of crypto winners may come from projects demonstrating real adoption rather than simply benefiting from their size or market recognition.