In the 2021-22 bull run, Curve DAO [$CRV] token’s prices hit a high of $5.91 before entering a 30-month downtrend. It was only able to extend to $1.33 during the 2025 bull run, with the same shedding 82% of its value since December 2024.
Investors and long-term holders might be in despair, but there may be a trading opportunity for buyers. It is contingent on Bitcoin’s [BTC] performance and market-wide sentiment, and will benefit from capital flows to altcoins.
If the sentiment remains relatively stable, there is a chance the Curve DAO token can rally in the coming weeks.
The likelihood of a 25%-33% $CRV rally
The 3-day timeframe revealed a firm bearish swing structure. The downward impulse came after the mid-January bounce, moving from $0.4578 to $0.2030. A set of Fibonacci retracement levels (orange) has been plotted based on these levels too.
The break of the $0.271-level from mid-February occurred a week ago, with a daily session close above this high. It flipped the internal structure bullishly, clearing the way for a relief rally.
Before the higher timeframe bearishness can reassert itself, a bounce towards the $0.$0.360-$0.403 golden pocket is possible.
This is the opportunity traders can look out for. The pullback from $0.293 since Monday, 11 May, has slightly dampened the momentum behind $CRV too.
It might also be a healthy pullback before the next rally.
Traders’ call to action – Cautiously bullish
Traders must remember that a Bitcoin sell-off can invalidate this bullish setup. This could explain the caution part of expectations. The higher Bitcoin climbs within its bear market, the more likely a steep correction becomes, making a long setup on altcoins appear more risky than they might be on their own merit.
Trusting the price action alone, the swing structure on the 4-hour chart was bullish. $CRV has retraced to the 78.6%-level. It might dip further, but as things stand, the bulls have done reasonably well to hold on to the $0.233-support zone.
They still need to flip the local resistance at $0.24-$0.244 to support.
Traders can use this resistance level flip to buy $CRV, targeting the $0.36-$0.40 higher timeframe golden pocket. Alternatively, a 4-hour session close below the $0.217-swing low would invalidate the idea.
Final Summary
- Curve DAO’s rally and pullback in May represented high volatility.
- It also paved the way for a potential relief rally by breaking the internal structure and pulling back to a key support zone.
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