Bitcoin continues trading within a well-defined parallel channel, repeatedly testing the upper boundary around $82,000 to $86,000 and facing consistent rejection. The technical concern is a bear flag formation developing since the drop from the $126,000 all-time high.
Analyst Gareth Soloway, who identified this resistance zone months ago, said the market has reached his target but has not broken through convincingly. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline sits directly at current resistance, which he described as the line in the sand. A sustained move above it opens a test of $86,000 to $87,000. Failure keeps the bear flag intact with downside risk toward prior lows.
The probability of a downside resolution remains above 50% but has diminished as the flag pattern extends in duration, shifting from roughly 75% to below 70%. Soloway said he has already exited his Bitcoin and Solana positions at current levels.
coinpedia.org