invezz.com
$ONDO, the native coin of the Ondo Finance ecosystem, is one of the best performers among the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
The coin is up by 5% on Monday, having gained more than 8% earlier in the Asian session after last week’s roughly 50% rally.
The rally comes following the recent announcement of the first-ever tokenized Treasury bill settlement.
However, retail confidence shows early signs of weakness as funding rates turn negative.
The momentum indicators remain largely bullish, suggesting that $ONDO could experience a breakout rally exceeding $0.50.
$ONDO rallies despite declining retail strength
$ONDO is up 5% in the last 24 hours and is now trading at $0.4267 per coin.
The positive performance comes after Ondo rallied roughly 50% last week, driven by the first-ever tokenized settlement of a short-term US Treasury bill in partnership with J.P. Morgan, Mastercard, and Ripple.
However, retail confidence in $ONDO is declining and this could result in a correction in the near term.
CoinGlass data shows the $ONDO futures Open Interest is up 5% over the last 24 hours, reaching $213.77 million, implying steady positional buildup in the leverage market.
Despite that, the funding rate has flipped negative to -0.0065%, suggesting that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold short positions.
Hence, retail traders are anticipating a potential reversal.
Furthermore, $ONDO’s long-to-short ratio of 0.9497 suggests a larger number of active short positions.
$ONDO price forecast: Will the bulls push above $0.50?
Unlike other major cryptocurrencies, the $ONDO/USD 4-hour chart is bullish thanks to its rally in recent days.
$ONDO is trading at $0.4267, well above its 200-day EMA at $0.4022, with the 100-day EMA at $0.3103 and the 50-day EMA at $0.2993 trailing far below and preparing for a Golden Cross.
Momentum indicators remain bullish but could be showing overbought signs.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) rallies above the signal line on the 4-hour chart.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 66 signals bullish conditions that could encourage consolidation or a corrective pause.
If the bulls push higher and close the daily candle above the $0.4524 resistance level, last tested on January 7, $ONDO could extend its rally above the $0.5000 psychological level, targeting the $0.5625 level, last seen on November 17.
However, if the bears regain control, initial support would be encountered at the 200-day EMA near $0.4022, where a pullback could test the durability of the latest breakout.
A break below this support would expose the next demand area around the 100-day EMA at $0.3103, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.2993.
Hitting this level would result in the where the broader bullish structure coming under pressure.