thecryptobasic.com
$XRP funding rates remain negative for months despite recovering prices, mirroring a pattern that led to the July 2025 rally to $3.6.
Specifically, market data indicates that despite the ongoing price recovery and capital inflows, persistent negative funding rates since February 2026 suggest a contrarian setup that previously resulted in a 126% surge.
Key Points
- $XRP funding rates have remained negative since February 2026 despite a 27% price increase.
- The TOTAL3 index lost over $544 billion during the correction but has since gained about $125 billion.
- $XRP dropped to $1.1 in February 2026 before recovering, but funding rates have not recovered with the price.
- A similar bearish funding pattern in April 2025 preceded a 126% rally to $3.6.
Market Recovering After Early Drop
Verified CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost called attention to this pattern in one of his latest market commentaries. Darkfost noted that the recent correction happened during a period of global uncertainty, which hit altcoins the hardest.
During this time, the TOTAL3 index, which tracks the global crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, dropped sharply. In total, it lost more than $544 billion, confirming the scale of the downtrend.
However, the situation has started to improve. Since early February, capital has slowly begun to flow back into altcoins. Over this period, the TOTAL3 market cap has grown by about $125 billion, suggesting that investors have now started returning.
$XRP Seeing Negative Funding Rates on Binance
Despite this recovery, many $XRP traders still expect prices to fall, leading to consistent bearish funding rates. Darkfost pointed out that this bearish outlook is especially clear on Binance, where $XRP funding rates have stayed negative for an unusually long time.
These funding rates have remained below the 0 mark since early February 2026, marking their longest negative stretch in recent history. According to Darkfost, the data looks at funding rates over a 30-day period, showing that short positions continue to dominate, while price moves up.
During this same period, $XRP has gained about 27%. For context, these negative funding rates began in February 2026, after the price dropped to $1.1 early in the month. Although $XRP has recovered since then, funding rates have not turned positive at any point.
This divergence between rising prices and bearish sentiment is an important pattern to watch. Darkfost noted that when most traders take the same negative position, especially after a drop of more than 60%, it can indicate that a bullish reversal may be close.
Similar Pattern Before the 2025 $XRP Rally
A similar situation occurred in April 2025, when $XRP traded around $1.25 after a major drop. At that time, funding rates turned negative for the first time in at least 16 months. While $XRP began to recover shortly after the drop, funding rates stayed negative for a long period, lasting until June 2025.
As the recovery strengthened, momentum built up. By the time funding rates finally turned positive, $XRP was already in an uptrend. This move led to a 126% rally, pushing the price to its all-time high of $3.6 in July 2025.
The current setup shows that the same pattern seems to be forming again. While traders remain bearish, the steady price recovery and return of capital suggest that $XRP could be preparing for another move upward.