finbold.com
$XRP price has been trapped in a falling trend year-to-date (YTD), and on-chain data analysis signals further weakness in the near term.
YTD $XRP price has declined over 25% to trade at about $1.37 on April 30. Since early February 2026, the token has oscillated around $1.40, with an upper limit of roughly $1.50.
As such, the altcoin’s market capitalization has declined to approximately $84.7 billion at press time. Despite the robust fundamentals for $XRP Ledger (XRPL), as Finbold previously pointed out, the token has struggled to rally beyond its multi-week strong supply wall near $1.50. The primary reason why the token failed to maintain bullish momentum in the past was due to low demand from whale investors YTD, led by spot $XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as Finbold reported.
Two main reasons $XRP price could fall further in the near term
The near-term outlook for $XRP leans heavily toward bearishness due to rising distribution among whales. Since early February 2026, the 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for XRPL whale-to-exchange transactions has spiked to an all-time high ($ATH) above 5,500 as of reporting time, according to data from CryptoQuant.
With XRPL whale-to-exchange transactions over the past 1 year hitting an $ATH, it is evident that large $XRP holders have been distributing the token for an extended period, thereby weighing on potential bullish sentiment.
Meanwhile, Binance’s XRPL Funding Rates – periodic payments between longs and shorts in perpetual futures to keep the contract price aligned with spot price – recently turned positive, based on metrics from CryptoQuant. As a result, the derivative traders have leaned largely toward bullish, which could trigger a long squeeze – a rapid price drop that forces leveraged long positions to close open trades and accelerates the selloff. The combination of rising whale distribution and renewed long traders is a catalyst for a strong long squeeze.