Bitcoin Rises on Ceasefire News, Yet Market Confidence Still Lags

• Price Recovery: Bitcoin has rebounded 3% to $71,600, while altcoins like $ETH and SOL are seeing gains exceeding 5%.
• Crude Oil Collapse: WTI crude fell 16% to $95 per barrel following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflationary pressure.
• Massive Liquidations: The market recorded the forced closure of short positions worth $431 million in 24 hours, the highest figure since March.

The crypto market regained ground following the announcement of a two-week truce between the United States and Iran. This temporary ceasefire eased global uncertainty, allowing Bitcoin to rise consistently as risk assets react positively to falling energy prices.

On the technical side, the CoinDesk 20 index outperformed the market leader with a 4.2% increase, signaling a renewed appetite for altcoins. Additionally, the 30-day implied volatility for BTC and $ETH has decreased, reflecting a cooling of the panic that dominated during the two weeks of prior conflict.

Institutional Impact and the Shadow of Oil

The renewed optimism could be bolstered by the debut of the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF. Experts anticipate that a solid volume of inflows into this institutional fund would strengthen the mass adoption narrative, acting as vital psychological and financial support to maintain current price levels.

However, despite the scenario, experts continue to show caution. Although crude oil dropped to $85, it still remains significantly above the levels seen before February 28. Therefore, if tanker traffic in Hormuz does not fully normalize, upward pressure on energy could stall the rally of digital assets.

In terms of price action, Bitcoin moved above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This move suggests a strengthening bullish momentum, placing the next relevant resistance at $76,100, coinciding with the 100-day average.

While political relief boosted prices, the market remains in a “wait-and-see” mode. The sustainability of this rally will depend on whether organic institutional demand can absorb potential profit-taking following the massive closure of short positions.