Tom Lee Says Ethereum and Bitcoin Are Beating Equities

Tom Lee is framing the current war shock as a macro event with two competing forces. On one side, higher energy prices are squeezing consumers and keeping inflation risk alive. On the other hand, he says wartime spending is acting as a much larger economic stimulus, which is helping support growth and keeping select assets resilient.

In comments highlighted by Tom Lee Tracker from his CNBC appearance, Lee says Ethereum is now the second-best performing asset since the war started, behind energy stocks, while Bitcoin ranks third. He adds that both crypto assets are beating the equity market on an absolute basis.

Tom Lee Puts War Spending Above Oil Drag

Lee says investors are focusing heavily on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, with inflation risk and labor-market weakness both moving to the front of the discussion. He says the balance looks messy, but he argues the growth impulse from war spending is larger than the consumer hit from gasoline.

He puts wartime spending at $30 billion a month and says it may climb to $100 billion a month. He also says every $10 increase in gasoline creates a $4 billion to $5 billion monthly hit to consumers. In his view, the spending side is currently outweighing the oil shock. He also says that if the conflict is a shorter war and the oil curve does not expect the shock to last into year-end, then the move is an inflation shock, not an inflation event.

Gas Prices Keep Inflation In The Conversation

The fuel chart supports the inflation side of Lee’s argument. It shows US gasoline prices rising to about $4.02 a gallon after the start of the Iran war. Reuters and Axios both report that US average gasoline prices have climbed roughly 35% to 36% since the war began, pushing pump prices above $4 for the first time since 2022.

That move is putting pressure on households and market inflation expectations. Lee nevertheless says the near-term setup does not point to imminent Fed cuts. He says current market expectations are correct and that a rate cut would not make sense in the near term.

Ethereum And Bitcoin Move Up The War Leaderboard

Lee says energy stocks are the top performers since the war began, Ethereum is second, and Bitcoin is third. He adds that both crypto assets are up on an absolute basis and are outperforming equities.

That positioning gives Ethereum a stronger macro narrative than usual. Instead of trading only as a tech-style risk asset, ETH is now appearing in Lee’s war-performance basket alongside energy and ahead of the broader stock market.

Bitcoin is also holding a stronger relative position in its framework, which suggests that both major crypto assets are drawing attention as outperformers inside a highly unstable macro backdrop.