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$ADA trades at $0.2428 on April 3, sitting directly on the 0.236 Fibonacci support as the Cardano Foundation’s 2025 annual report lands with a 45% drop in total assets. The decline is a price story, not a structural one, and buried inside the report is something more significant: the first time an auditor has recorded its opinion on-chain.
$ADA Holds The Fibonacci Floor As MACD Stalls
$ADA has been grinding inside a descending channel since the March 18 high at $0.2980, and the 0.236 Fibonacci at $0.2431 has held as a floor through multiple tests this week. All four EMAs are declining overhead between $0.2428 and $0.2622, and the MACD reads exactly zero on the 4h, a complete stall in momentum after weeks of selling pressure.
The 0.382 Fibonacci at $0.2495 is the first level worth reclaiming. A 4h close above it clears the immediate EMA cluster and puts the 0.5 level at $0.2546 in range. Losing $0.2431 opens the grid base at $0.2328, and below that the February low at $0.2200 becomes the reference.
Key levels:
- 0.236 Fib support: $0.2431
- 0.382 Fib resistance: $0.2495
- 0.5 Fib target: $0.2546
- Grid base: $0.2328
- February low: $0.2200
Foundation Assets Down 45%, But The Balance Sheet Is Better Than It Looks
The Cardano Foundation’s total assets fell to $361M at year-end 2025, down from $659M in 2024. The foundation held 561M $ADA, down from 599M, and Bitcoin dropped from 1,054 $BTC to 656 $BTC, with part of those holdings moved deliberately into loans and investment schemes to avoid forced crypto sales during downturns.
Cash and financial assets now make up 25.5% of total holdings, up from 8.3% a year ago, giving the foundation more than a year of operational runway without liquidating crypto. Grant Thornton Switzerland recorded its audit opinion directly on the Cardano blockchain through the foundation’s Reeve platform, combining traditional statutory auditing with on-chain verification for the first time. The report also disclosed the first-ever Cardano treasury withdrawal, with 6M $ADA budgeted for the Cardano Summit and 2.8M $ADA spent on the Berlin event.
$ADA Derivatives: No Conviction In Either Direction
Volume fell 29.41% to $706.94M with OI down 0.73% to $379.62M, both declining together as traders reduce exposure rather than add positions.
The long/short ratio is essentially neutral at 1.0028, and 24h liquidations were nearly balanced at $250.84K longs against $227.19K shorts. With options volume at just $6.59K, the derivatives market is not pricing in a directional move either way in the near term.
Cardano Price Prediction: Key Levels For April 4
- Upside: Close above $0.2495 on the 4h and the EMA cluster gives way. The 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.2546 becomes the next test, with $0.2598 above that. Foundation report transparency and the on-chain audit milestone give $ADA a credibility case that could attract institutional attention as April progresses.
- Downside: Lose $0.2431 and the grid base at $0.2328 opens quickly given the flat MACD and weak derivatives positioning. The February low at $0.2200 follows if that level fails.