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Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz complicates ceasefire prospects. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
The chokehold on a crucial energy corridor has traders skittish. The April 15 market sits at 18.5% YES, reflecting the squeeze in sentiment following Iran’s strategic blockade. The April 30 market is marginally more optimistic at 36.5% YES, though still down from 49% a week prior. The biggest term structure jump is a 19-point rise between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders anticipate a catalyst in that window. May 31 odds hover at 55.5% YES, while June 30 odds are a cautious 63.5%.
USDC traded across these markets totals $1.39M daily, with the April 15 market seeing the most action at $600K. The order book is deep enough to require $61,773 to move April 15 odds five points. The largest single-day move was a four-point spike in the April 30 market at 10:56 AM. Such volatility suggests traders are reacting sharply to geopolitical developments.
Iran’s latest strategic maneuver signals a high escalation, challenging any ceasefire hopes in the immediate term. If the U.S. responds militarily, markets could see further bearish moves on ceasefire odds. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough involving Oman or Qatar could stabilize the markets. A YES share at 7.5¢ for an April 7 ceasefire presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario — a 13.3x return if resolved.
Watch for CENTCOM’s next move, particularly any Navy deployments or announced strikes. A shift in rhetoric from the U.S. administration, especially from Trump or Secretary Rubio, would also be pivotal.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 7.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 63.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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