Oil Rose 3% to Open the Week: Here’s What Moved the Market on Monday

Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday, pushing Brent crude above $116 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, climbed to roughly $102 per barrel.

The latest rise comes as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its fifth week with no signs of abating.

Oil Extends Its War-Fueled Rally

Several escalatory developments over the weekend fueled the surge. President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could possibly seize Kharg Island, the terminal that handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports.

The US president struck a mixed tone on diplomacy with Iran, saying he was “pretty sure” of making a deal with Iran but conceding that talks could still collapse.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that Tehran would “set them on fire” when American forces arrived and promised consequences for US-allied nations in the region.

The oil price surge is far from over, according to market analysts, who warn that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive crude even higher.

“A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $150/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply,” Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan, said.

According to Bloomberg, US officials and Wall Street analysts have also begun discussing the possibility of crude reaching $200 per barrel.

Asian Stocks Tumble, Crypto Feels the Pressure

The energy shock rippled across Asia. Google Finance data showed that Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell over 4.5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 4.3% as import-dependent economies repriced risk.

The volatility has spread to crypto markets, with asset prices dipping early in the morning before rebounding.

“The market briefly crashed just now — ETH dropped below $1,940 and BTC fell below $65,000,” Lookonchain reported.

Oil above $100 per barrel continues to pressure risk assets by fueling inflation expectations and delaying anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.