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The Gaussian Channel has revealed the price area in which $XRP could mark its bottom for the ongoing downtrend, leading to a bull market recovery.
Notably, $XRP has continued to face declines since reaching the $3.6 peak in July 2025. Currently trading for $1.4, prices have dropped 61.1% from the $3.6 high. While traders continue to look out for what could be the bottom for this downtrend, the Gaussian Channel has revealed some important pointers.
Key Points
- Since reaching $3.6 in July 2025, $XRP has continued to decline, now down 61% from this peak amid a downtrend that has lasted for five months.
- While some analysts suggested that the new year could bring in a full-blown rebound push, $XRP has failed to follow this projection, facing resistance during a January run to $2.4.
- At the current position, investors and traders remain confused about where the bottom of this downtrend could materialize.
- Amid the uncertainty, the Gaussian Channel shows that $XRP may now be close to the bottom, which sits at the lower channel around $0.91.
- This means $XRP may still dip further below $1 before eventually recovering to new heights in a full-blown rebound.
$XRP’s 5-Month Struggles
This is according to a recent analysis from Chart Nerd, a well-known market watcher, amid $XRP’s ongoing struggles. The crypto asset had attempted another recovery push from Feb. 28, but the roadblock at $1.6, attained on March 17, has since foiled this attempt.
$XRP has again dropped below $1.5, with bears pushing to breach the $1.4 support in the latest round of selloffs. While some analysts suggested that a full-blown price recovery could ensue in 2026, $XRP’s initial rally in early January 2026 faced premature resistance at $2.4, and the recent resistance at $1.6 is the latest to cap such rebound attempts.
Is $XRP’s Bottom In?
While bulls have not yet gotten the rally they anticipate, the equally important question is: has $XRP already reached its bottom for the ongoing downtrend? For context, $XRP reached a floor price of $1.1 on Feb. 6 amid the downturn. While some believe this marked the bottom, others suggest prices could still go lower.
Chart Nerd belongs in the latter’s camp. According to him, $XRP still has the potential to decline further from here. Interestingly, in his latest market exposition, the chartist presented a Gaussian Channel analysis to try to pinpoint the area in which $XRP could hit its bottom for the bear cycle.
Specifically, the Gaussian Channel features an upper band at $2.16, with a middle band around $1.54. Meanwhile, the lower band sits at $0.91. Chart Nerd suggests that this $0.91 area aligning with the lower Gaussian Channel band could mark $XRP’s bottom, from which a proper recovery could ensue.
Historical Data Gives Pointers
Notably, the analyst called attention to historical data that indicates that $XRP’s bottom in previous cycles always aligned with the lower Gaussian Channel band on the 2-week chart.
Data shows that this occurred in March 2017, when $XRP dropped to $0.0048, close to the lower Gaussian Channel band at the time. This floor price marked the bottom for the 2017 downtrend, and from here, $XRP recovered to the $3.31 peak in January 2018.
This played out again during the 2020 bear market, as $XRP declined to $0.1049 in March of that year. The price aligned with the lower band of the Gaussian Channel and represented $XRP’s bottom at the time. While $XRP failed to engineer a rebound to new heights due to the SEC lawsuit, which started in December 2020, it still recovered to $1.96 by April 2021.
The last time $XRP repeated this pattern was in 2022, when the price declined to $0.2875 in June of that year, following the Terra implosion. This low marked the bottom, as it aligned with the Gaussian Channel’s lower band. From here, $XRP started to rebound, but the full rally only came in during the November 2024 upsurge.
$XRP Run May Not Be Immediate
Now, with the lower band of the Gaussian Channel sitting at $0.91, Chart Nerd believes the price could gravitate toward this level to form the bottom, like in previous cycles. $XRP’s ability to see bottoms at higher lows, including $0.0048, $0.1049, $0.2875 and now, potentially $0.91, shows it has built strength over the years.
However, it remains uncertain if the $0.91 price will actually mark the bottom. Also, even if the bottom comes in at $0.91, this will indicate that $XRP had already recorded its lowest price for the cycle, but it doesn’t guarantee an immediate full-blown upsurge. Most times, such rallies occur months after the price hits the bottom.