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While $XRP price has continued to defend the 200-week EMA, it would need to breach an overhead resistance range to flip the bearish trend around.
$XRP is currently at a critical point, with price action centered around the 200-week EMA at $1.41, which serves as a key support level.
While the price has managed to recover above this level, it remains under pressure from strong resistance between $1.8 and $2, where the 20-week and 50-week EMAs sit.
Key Points
- Data shows $XRP is holding above the 200-week EMA at $1.41 after briefly dropping below it, helping drive a 22% recovery from $1.12 to $1.6.
- $XRP sees strong resistance between $1.8 and $2 (20 EMA and 50 EMA), where it must break above to confirm a shift away from the current bearish trend.
- A death cross between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA in January previously led to a price decline after a rally to $2.4.
- $XRP could mirror past cycles, where a rebound after touching the 200-week EMA led to a short-term rally before a continued drop.
- Data points to a possible downside target around $0.7 to $0.8, aligned with a long-term trendline and untested support zone.
$XRP Holds Above $1.41 but Remains Under Pressure
This is according to a recent analysis from Chart Nerd, which shows that $XRP sits at a very important point, with the 200-week EMA at $1.41 acting as a key support level.
Over the last five to six weeks, the price has moved around this level, sometimes dropping below it but recently closing back above it with strength. This move helped $XRP rise by about 22%, from $1.12 to $1.6, but the overall trend is still uncertain, as the price has again slipped below $1.5.
Right now, $XRP sits between strong support and strong resistance. Specifically, the $1.41 level is holding it up, while the 20-week and 50-week EMAs between $1.8 and $2 are keeping it down.
This tight range means the price could move higher in the short term, but it still faces pressure. Until $XRP clearly breaks above the $1.8 to $2 range, the broader trend still leans bearish.
$1.8 to $2 Remains the Key Barrier
Chart Nerd explained that $XRP needs to move above the $1.8 to $2 zone, where the 20 EMA and 50 EMA meet, to show real strength. Without that move, any rally could fail just like before. In a past move, $XRP climbed from $1.8 to $2.4, but that same period saw a death cross form between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA in January, which later pushed the price down again.
The current recovery from $1.12 looks similar to that earlier pattern. The analyst expects $XRP to continue rising toward $1.8 to $2 in March, April, or May, but warns that a rejection there could lead to another drop. If that happens, $XRP could lose the $1.41 support, which would confirm a deeper bearish trend.
Past Cycles Point to a Short-Term Bounce
Looking back at earlier cycles, the analyst compared today’s market to what happened in 2021, when $XRP peaked near $2, dropped to the 200-week EMA, and then saw a relief rally that lasted about three months. After that short recovery, the price continued downward.
In the current cycle, $XRP reached a high in July 2025 and has now returned to the 200-week EMA, following a similar path. This suggests $XRP could still rise toward $2, but that move may only be temporary before another decline later in 2026.
The timing also lines up, as the previous rally peaked in March, and $XRP has already climbed to $1.6 this March, with a possible move higher still ahead.
A Drop to $0.7-$0.8 Remains Possible
If $XRP fails to break above $1.8 to $2, the analyst sees a chance of a deeper drop toward $0.7 to $0.8. This area was once resistance and has not yet been tested as support. It also matches a long-term rising trendline that started from the 2020 lows, which $XRP has respected several times.
Although this kind of drop may look worrying, the analyst believes it could present a strong long-term buying chance. This idea depends on $XRP following the same pattern as before, where a short rally leads to a final move down to a key support level.
Still, the analyst warns that as long as $XRP remains below the 20 EMA and 50 EMA on the weekly chart, the market stays in a risky position. The next few weeks, especially through March and into April or May, will likely decide whether $XRP can break higher or continue moving down.