XRP Versus Bitcoin: Why a Failed Retest This Weekend Could Lead to 64% Decline

The situation on the $XRP-versus-Bitcoin chart looks like a "make or break" one for altcoin supporters. As of the end of the week, the pair is sitting in a critical zone that may determine the trend for the coming month.

What is visible on the TradingView chart is not just a retest of the 200-week moving average but an attempt by $XRP to hold above it. In technical analysis, a weekly close below this level often signals a transition into a prolonged bearish cycle.

Why failed 200-day MA retest this Monday could trigger 64% decline

At the moment, $XRP is valued at 0.0000206 $BTC. There are two days left until the weekly close, and if the price fails to consolidate above the red line, the technical breakdown-retest scenario will be confirmed.

If $XRP indeed follows this path, the next major support zone stands only at 0.00000722 $BTC per $XRP — a pre-2024 rally level. A decline to these values would mean a further loss of more than 64% of $XRP’s value relative to Bitcoin.

This is happening as capital continues to concentrate in Bitcoin, draining liquidity from altcoins, becoming the only interesting asset in the current crypto environment.

For $XRP, fundamental news capable of triggering a sharp buyback against Bitcoin above the moving average is now crucial. New regulatory guidance from the SEC and CFTC regarding the crypto market, and $XRP in particular, has already been released. However, as can be seen, this breakthrough has not been enough for $XRP versus Bitcoin.

The main marker is the Sunday closing price. If $XRP ends the week above 0.000021 $BTC, chances of recovery remain. If it closes below that, the bearish scenario will enter full force.