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Historical data suggests $XRP could record steeper declines from here, but reveals when a rally to a new all-time high could ensue.
Despite the latest recovery effort, the broader crypto market remains in a long-term downtrend, with the global crypto market cap down 18.25% this year to $2.4 trillion. Amid the turbulent phase, $XRP has suffered considerable losses, having collapsed 23.8% within the same period, as it changes hands at $1.4.
While market participants anticipate a recovery effort, historical data shows $XRP could still witness greater losses before eventually rebounding. However, further data suggests the rebound could push prices to $8.6 between September and December 2026.
Key Points
- $XRP has dropped 23.8% year-to-date despite a recent recovery effort, currently changing hands at the $1.4 level.
- With this downward price action, $XRP has been trading inside a descending channel since it dropped from the $3.6 peak in July 2025.
- $XRP retested the upper trendline of the channel when it rose to $2.4 in January 2026 and retested the lower channel when it dropped to $1.11 in February 2026.
- Amid the ongoing downtrend, historical data suggests steeper declines could be possible for $XRP, possibly leading below the $1 mark to again retest the channel’s lower trendline.
- However, after this, the ensuing recovery could result in a breakout above the channel, possibly leading to $8.6 by the end of the year.
$XRP Trades Within Descending Channel
Celal Küçüker, a well-known chartist, called attention to this channel structure during his latest $XRP analysis. For context, the lower trendline of the channel started forming after $XRP pulled back from the $3.4 peak in January 2025, and acted as resistance for over six months, until $XRP broke above it in July to reach the $3.6 all-time high.
Following this breakout, the lower trendline started acting as support. Interestingly, after $XRP corrected from the all-time high, the upper trendline of the descending channel formed.
Essentially, while the long-running lower trendline acted as support, the newly-formed upper trendline represented resistance. The full-blown channel, featuring both trendlines, has now run from July 2025 to the current period, guiding $XRP’s price movements over the past nine months.
$XRP Target Levels Within the Channel
Trading within this channel, $XRP would naturally retest the resistance at the upper trendline and support at the lower trendline, as both bulls and bears attempt a breakout to either side.
Küçüker spotlighted multiple target levels that $XRP could hit amid these retests. The first target stood at the $2.4 level around the upper trendline, with the second target around $1.1 aligning with a retest of the lower trendline. From here, he suggests another retest of the upper trendline at $1.8 before a final lower trendline retest at $0.9.
At press time, $XRP has claimed two of these target levels. Specifically, it retested the $2.4 upper trendline resistance in early January, and then dropped to the $1.1 low in early February. Now, Küçüker expects a rebound to again retest the upper trendline at $1.8 before another pullback to $0.9.
Historical Data Points to $8.6
Meanwhile, after the pullback to $0.9, the market analyst suggests the next recovery attempt could eventually lead to a breakout above the descending channel. Küçüker predicts this breakout to push prices to $8.6 by September to December this year, which would represent a 339% increase from the breakout price.
Interestingly, historical data supports this projection. Specifically, $XRP witnessed a similar descending channel from 2023 to 2024, as the market traded in a range while facing a downward trend. After it broke out above this channel in November 2024, $XRP eventually rose 339% to the $3.4 peak by January 2025.