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Latest developments: Edelman told CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie on Markets Outlook that the dispute over whether stablecoins can offer yield is threatening progress on market structure legislation.
- Banking groups argue allowing stablecoin issuers to offer yield would siphon deposits from traditional banks.
- Edelman said banks are opposing the provision largely because stablecoins pose a competitive threat to their business models.
- The issue has become a sticking point in negotiations around the Clarity Act, a proposed crypto market structure bill in Washington.
- Despite siding with crypto on the economics, Edelman said the banking lobby is politically strong and “likely to win the argument.”
Why it matters: Edelman argues the industry should compromise rather than risk losing regulatory clarity altogether.
- “I don’t think it’s the hill to die on,” Edelman said about the fight over stablecoin yield.
- He said the broader legislation would provide long-awaited regulatory certainty for crypto companies and investors.
- Prediction markets currently suggest the bill will pass, he said, though the timeline remains uncertain.
- Edelman warned the bill could stall if it doesn’t pass before midterm elections.
The market outlook: Edelman believes regulatory clarity could quickly revive crypto markets.
- If the bill fails, he expects a sharp but temporary drop in crypto prices as investors react.
- Over the long term, crypto would still grow but at a slower pace without supportive legislation.
- If clarity arrives, Edelman predicts crypto prices could surge and quickly reach new all-time highs.
- He reiterated his long-term forecast that bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of the decade.
Reading between the lines: Edelman also pushed back on fears that quantum computing threatens Bitcoin.
- Claims that quantum computers will break the Bitcoin blockchain are “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard anybody say,” Edelman said.
- He argued the industry would develop defensive cryptography alongside any advances in quantum computing.
- Even if such machines emerge, attackers would likely target larger financial systems or infrastructure before Bitcoin.
- Edelman continues to recommend investors allocate up to 40% of portfolios to crypto broadly, focusing mainly on major assets such as bitcoin, ether and solana.
Looking ahead: Edelman expects consolidation among cryptocurrencies as the market matures.
- He predicts roughly a dozen major cryptocurrencies will ultimately dominate the sector.
- At the same time, tokenization could create hundreds of thousands of blockchain-based tokens representing assets like real estate, commodities and collectibles.
- That shift could dramatically expand diversification opportunities for investors.