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Amid the ongoing $XRP price downturn, the price must hold above the upper band of the Gaussian Channel to keep the $13 dream alive.
$XRP has stayed under heavy selling pressure, dropping more than 51% since the current downtrend started in Q4 2025. The token now trades at $1.39 after a steady decline that began in October 2025 and stretched into early February 2026.
Sellers have stayed in control for months, pushing the price lower step by step. As $XRP now moves sideways in a bearish setup, investors feel uncertain about where it could head next. Amid the uncertainty, data has revealed the level that must hold for the upside rally to targets such as $13 to remain in play.
Key Points
- $XRP surged to a new all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025 after breaking out of a 7-year symmetrical triangle in late 2024.
- The token has since dropped 61%, slumping to $1.39 amid sustained bearish pressure that has lasted for five months.
- Price recorded a 2026 low of $1.12 in early February, flipping this area from previous resistance to support.
- Amid the downturn, market data shows $XRP must hold above the $1.17 Upper Gaussian Channel to keep upside projections toward $8 and $13 in play.
- A decisive break below $1.17 could trigger a pullback toward the mid Gaussian Channel around $0.73.
- Previous retests of the mid-Gaussian Channel have historically marked major bottoms before strong upward expansions.
The Breakout That Sent $XRP to $3.66
This analysis came from Chart Nerd, who recently presented what he called a>the everyday noise. Notably, he called attention to a multi-year fractal pattern that showed a clear breakout in late 2024.
During this period, $XRP broke above long-standing descending resistance that had capped price action for years. The move pushed the price above the upper trendline of a 7-year symmetrical triangle, indicating that it had engineered a major change in its long-term structure.
After the November 2024 surge, $XRP rallied to $3.66 by July 2025, marking a new all-time high. However, that peak was followed by steady selling pressure. Bears dragged the price down to $1.39, where it currently trades, representing a 61% drop from the ATH.
Why the $1.12 and $1.17 Levels Matter
Chart Nerd explained that the decline from the July 2025 high created what he sees as a backtest of the previous breakout zone. The area that once acted as resistance before the November 2024 rally has now turned into support. For context, amid the downtrend, $XRP touched the $1.12 area and rebounded, confirming that buyers are trying to defend it as support.
Meanwhile, $XRP dropped the Upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel at $1.17. This bolsters the support at this level. According to Chart Nerd, as long as $XRP stays above the $1.17 Upper Gaussian Channel level, the short-term parabolic outlook remains in place. If the support holds, price projections still point toward $8 and even $13.
The Risk If $1.17 Fails
Chart Nerd called $1.17 the key line bulls must protect. Holding above it keeps the path open for a move toward $8 and $13. However, if $XRP breaks clearly below $1.17, he expects a deeper pullback. In such a case, the price could drop to test the mid-Gaussian Channel area around $0.73 before any larger upside move begins.
A fall to $0.73 would also mean $XRP re-enters the 8-year symmetrical triangle it previously broke out from. This move could highlight a multi-year ascending support point of control. However, past retests of the mid-Gaussian Channel regression band have marked every major bottom and accumulation phase before $XRP launched into sharp upward moves.
Chart Nerd believes much of the recent damage has already happened. Still, he insists that $1.17 acts as the guardrail for any short-term recovery. If $XRP holds that level, the dream of reaching $13 stays alive. If it loses that support, traders may have to prepare for a deeper move toward $0.73 before the next major expansion begins.