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Market analyst Mike McGlone, in his latest assessment of global markets, warned that a potential war between the US and Iran could trigger the next US recession. According to McGlone, increased geopolitical tensions could put significant pressure on already fragile financial markets.
The analyst also pointed to some market levels where the current scenario could be disproven. According to him, developments such as Bitcoin remaining above $74,000, copper rising to $6, silver to $100, the S&P 500 index surpassing 7,000 points, and the Dow Jones reaching the 50,000 level could indicate a different macroeconomic picture. However, he stated that a rise in US Treasury yields above 5% could create a “loser-loser” scenario.
According to McGlone, the declines in the cryptocurrency market could be one of the first signs of a broader deflationary process that may emerge in the post-inflation era. The analyst argued that crypto assets rose very rapidly in the past, creating an oversupply in the market, and that this is the reason for the pullbacks.
Energy markets also play a significant role in McGlone’s analysis. According to the analyst, sudden increases in oil prices can often trigger a surplus in the market by liquidating short positions, increasing the risk of a global recession. McGlone notes that US natural gas prices could be a key indicator for the oil market in 2026, pointing out that natural gas futures, which rose nearly 100% in January, have fallen by approximately 15% since the beginning of the year.
McGlone also stated that the extreme volatility in precious metals and energy markets could eventually be reflected in equity markets. According to the analyst, the asset class that could yield the highest returns for investors in 2026 might be US government bonds. McGlone, recalling that gold stood out in 2025 and Bitcoin in 2024, suggested that bonds could exhibit similar performance in 2026.
*This is not investment advice.