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The $XRP price could either break below $1 or rise above its current all-time high, depending on how it reacts to a key level.
$XRP has stayed under strong bearish pressure, extending a downtrend that began in October 2025. So far this year, $XRP has fallen 26%, as it trades for $1.35, putting it on course for its most bearish performance since the 2022 bear market.
Market data shows that $XRP’s next major move depends largely on how the price reacts at $1.55, with downside risk toward $0.85 if rejection occurs, or upside potential toward $2.2 and beyond if bulls breach the level. The outcome at these levels could determine the direction of $XRP’s multi-month trend.
Key Points
- $XRP has declined 26% in 2025 and currently trades at $1.35 after dropping 63% from its $3.66 peak in July 2025, based on market data.
- Price remains inside a descending channel that began influencing structure after the July 2025 rally from $1.9 to $3.66.
- $XRP’s next major direction would largely depend on how it reacts to the pivotal $1.55 level.
- If $XRP fails to break above $1.55, market data suggests it could retest $1.26, fall toward $1, and potentially sweep the $0.95-$0.85 macro support zone.
- A successful break above $1.55 would weaken the bearish outlook, while a weekly close above $2.20 would invalidate the descending structure.
- Whether $XRP takes the bearish path or the bullish path, data shows the ultimate target still rests around $7.
The Descending Channel Structure
This is according to an analysis from market watcher EGRAG Crypto. According to him, amid the ongoing downtrend, $XRP still trades inside a white descending channel on the weekly timeframe.
Data from his chart shows that since the channel started forming years back, $XRP traded below it. Even the explosive rally to $3.31 in January 2018 failed to push $XRP into the structure. Likewise, the surge to $3.4 in January 2025 did not move the asset into the channel.
However, after recovering from $1.9 in June 2025, $XRP rallied aggressively and reached a peak of $3.66 in July 2025. This rally marked the first time $XRP entered the descending channel.
Since topping at $3.66, $XRP has corrected by 63% and now changes hands at $1.35. Despite this steep decline, the price remains inside the descending channel, meaning the pace of the drop has not exceeded the slope of the channel itself. As a result, the broader structure remains intact.
EGRAG said the current momentum was corrective, not impulsive. He believes every move from $XRP within the channel represents distribution, not a breakout. Within this structure, the upper trendline acts as resistance while the lower trendline provides support. Only a decisive break above the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and confirm a bullish trend change.
$XRP Bearish Scenario
EGRAG then shared two possible paths that $XRP could take from here. He argued that $XRP’s next major move depends on how the price reacts around the critical $1.55 level. This level will determine whether $XRP continues sliding toward sub-$1 territory or flips into a bullish expansion that could eventually lead to a new all-time high.
The first path is a bearish red trajectory that could play out if $XRP fails to reclaim $1.55. From the current $1.35 level, he expects $XRP to attempt a move toward $1.55. If sellers reject the price below $1.55, this rejection could activate the bearish pathway.
Under this scenario, $XRP would first revisit the $1.26 lows before bouncing back to test $1.55. If price faces rejection at $1.55, it could then slide toward $1. After a relief bounce that again stalls at $1.55, $XRP could enter a second corrective phase. The second pullback would sweep the macro support zone between $0.95 and $0.85.
However, EGRAG does not see the move to $0.85 as a market collapse. Instead, he calls it a controlled higher-timeframe reset. He assigns a 55% to 65% probability that $XRP will face rejection at $1.55 and follow this deeper pullback path.
$XRP Bullish Scenario
For the bullish path, EGRAG emphasized that a decisive break above $1.55 would weaken the red trajectory. If $XRP rises to $1.55 and breaks through instead of facing rejection, this move would act as the first trigger against the bearish thesis.
He identified $2.20 as the major invalidation level. Specifically, a weekly close above $2.20 would push $XRP above the descending channel, break the descending structure, invalidate the bear thesis, and activate a bullish continuation phase. Such a breakout would indicate a structural change.
EGRAG believes that once $XRP clears $2.20, a push toward the $2.7 to $3.6 range could ensue. A sustained move through that zone could even open the path to a new all-time high. He estimates a 35% to 45% probability that $XRP will push above $1.55 and initiate this early breakout scenario.
Whether $XRP faces rejection at $1.55 and follows the bearish path or breaches $1.55 to follow the bullish path, EGRAG’s chart suggests the ultimate target lies above $7. Taking the bearish path would only make the journey to this target lengthier.