JPMorgan warns oil could surge to $120 if Iran war disrupts Gulf supply

Strategists at JPMorgan estimate that Brent crude could reach as high as $120 per barrel if disruptions from an escalating Middle East conflict last more than three weeks, exhausting Gulf storage capacity and forcing output shut-ins that tighten global supply.

In a note led by commodities research head Natasha Kaneva, the JPMorgan team says prices will depend on the scale and duration of supply losses, the speed at which replacement barrels or strategic reserves can be mobilized, and whether shipping through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained by security risks and surging insurance costs.

Though the strait has not formally closed, shipping has slowed as insurance costs spike and safety concerns mount.

JPMorgan estimates that Gulf producers dependent on Hormuz, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar, and Oman, have about 343 million barrels of onshore storage, enough to sustain around 22 days of output if exports are stranded.

If disruptions exceed three weeks, producers may be forced to curb production, tightening global supply and pushing Brent into the $100–$120 range.

The bank also notes that past regime changes in medium-to-large oil-producing countries have resulted in average price increases of 76% from onset to peak.

Global oil markets reacted strongly after military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran intensified tensions across the Middle East.

Oil prices surged on Monday, with Brent crude rising above $80 during trading before settling near $77, while stock futures declined.

Energy companies like Exxon and Chevron saw gains, as higher oil prices tend to boost profits, alongside defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.