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Andy Edstrom, an analyst closely followed in the cryptocurrency markets, shared his new prediction regarding the Bitcoin price. In his assessment made on social media, Edstrom argued that the current downtrend has not yet ended.
Edstrom stated that his assessments cover the next year. He specifically emphasized that the attack on Iran did not trigger this forecast, adding that he had planned to share his findings before the event.
According to Edstrom, the bear market for Bitcoin is still ongoing. Recalling his prediction of a 60% probability of a decline in November, the analyst stated that the price is currently trading sideways around the $60,000 mark, but this situation is unlikely to be permanent.
Referring to previous cycles, Edstrom stated that there is a high probability of at least one more sharp downward move this year. The analyst said he gives a 65 percent chance of a new wave of decline.
Edstrom considered it “quite likely” that the $58,000 level could be seen again in a potential downward scenario. While giving a 50% probability of falling to the $40,000 level, he calculated the probability of this scenario within the overall picture as approximately 33%.
The analyst stated that reaching the $30,000 level is unlikely, suggesting it has approximately a 15 percent chance of happening, and even if it does, it wouldn’t last long.
On the other hand, Edstrom stated that Bitcoin could theoretically fall to much lower levels, even to zero, but that this carries a low single-digit percentage probability.
According to the analyst, the scenario where $60,000 is the bottom could be possible with positive developments that provide liquidity to financial markets. Increased global risk appetite and easing of monetary policies could support this scenario.
Despite short-term risks, Edstrom’s long-term outlook remains unchanged. Recalling his 2019 book, written when Bitcoin was trading around $8,000, in which he set a 10-year price target of $400,000, the analyst argues that this target is still valid despite current price movements.
*This is not investment advice.