invezz.com
Polkadot ($DOT) has surged dramatically in the last 24 hours, climbing 16.9% to $1.44.
This outpaces the broader crypto market, where total capitalisation gained just 4.54% over the same period.
Investors and traders are taking notice, and the reasons behind the rally are both unique and timely.
Why the Polkadot price is surging
The primary catalyst is speculation around Polkadot’s upcoming network milestone.
The platform is preparing for its first-ever “halving,” a 50% reduction in inflation scheduled for March 14, 2026.
As the halving event nears, social sentiment has been overwhelmingly bullish, with many viewing this as the start of a new “scarcity era” for $DOT.
Adding to the hype are rumours of potential Polkadot ETF filings for $DOT by institutional firms like Grayscale, and 21Shares, fueling anticipation among investors.
The excitement is amplified by a sector-wide rotation into altcoins.
The Altcoin Season Index has surged over 35 points in the past week, showing that market participants are seeking gains beyond Bitcoin.
Technical analysis
Polkadot ($DOT) recently broke above its 30-day simple moving average at $1.43, signalling a technical breakout.
The 7-day SMA at $1.30 now serves as solid support, giving the price a strong foundation.
Trading volume has also jumped over 67% in 24 hours, reaching $235.76 million, confirming that buyers are actively participating.
Looking at the momentum indicators, the RSI stands at around 52 after rebounding from an oversold region that it had entered into at the beginning of February, which means there is still room for the rally to continue before $DOT becomes overbought.
These technical signals suggest that the altcoin is shifting from short-term bearishness to bullish momentum.
Polkadot price forecast
In the near term, $DOT’s rally reflects a combination of unique speculative factors, strong technical signals, and broad market trends favouring altcoins.
Eyes are now on whether $DOT’s price can sustain the rally and maintain above the $1.43 breakout level.
In case of a pullback, $1.35 acts as the immediate short-term support, with $1.25–$1.29 forming a secondary support zone incase $1.35 gives way.
Holding above these support levels is critical, as a drop below $1.25 could trigger a retest of lower levels, according to analysis by the likes of CoinLore.
But if the current bull rally holds, the immediate resistance lies in the $1.60–$1.71 range, which aligns with recent technical breakouts.
Beyond that, historical resistance levels at $1.97, $2.36, and $3.03 are likely targets if the bullish momentum continues.
The upcoming March 14, 2026, network event is expected to be a key catalyst for further moves.