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$XRP recently crashed after retesting a pivotal EMA on the weekly timeframe, but the historical structure points to a potential recovery to $13.
The crypto market has continued to face sustained declines since the fourth quarter of 2025, with the global crypto market cap losing $2 trillion over the last five months. $XRP has not escaped the onslaught, now down 62% from its all-time high of $3.66.
Notably, market data indicates that the downturn actually coincided with $XRP’s collapse after a failed retest of a pivotal exponential moving average (EMA) on the 1-week chart. While $XRP has continued to decline after this failed retest, historical data indicates a potential 1,030% rise to $13 could play out.
Key Points
- $XRP’s Price Decline Amid Broader Crypto Market Losses: $XRP has fallen 62% from its all-time high of $3.66, as the global crypto market cap has lost $2 trillion since Q4 2025.
- Rejection at Critical EMA and Potential Reversal: A failed retest of a pivotal exponential moving average (EMA) on the weekly chart coincided with $XRP’s decline, but historical data suggests a possible recovery to $13.
- Significance of the Mysterious EMA: Market analyst EGRAG Crypto points out that a critical EMA since 2018 has acted as resistance or support; failing to break above it during retests has historically led to steeper declines.
- $XRP’s Failed Breakout and Future Projections: $XRP’s attempt to break above the EMA in late 2025 failed, leading to further declines; however, a possible rebound could push $XRP to $2.2 before another drop to $0.78.
- Historical Context Supporting the Bullish Potential: The projected $13 target represents a 1,030% increase from recent lows, similar to $XRP’s past surge from late 2020 to 2021 after a previous EMA retest failure.
The Mysterious Yet Critical EMA
This suggestion came from a market analysis shared by notable chartist EGRAG Crypto as $XRP continues to struggle below $1.5. The chartist emphasized that his analysis centers around a critical EMA on the 1-week chart that has served as an important technical indicator since $XRP dropped from the 2018 peak.
EGRAG noted that once market participants successfully identify this EMA, they would come to understand the unique pattern that $XRP has followed since 2018. However, the analyst kept the actual EMA mysterious, with details revealed only to subscribers.
While the EMA remains a mystery, data from his chart shows how it has acted as a critical dynamic resistance or support level depending on the structure. Notably, whenever $XRP retests the EMA during a downtrend and fails to break above it, what follows is typically a steeper crash.
$XRP’s Failed Breakout
In the current cycle, $XRP slipped below the EMA in November 2025 amid the ongoing downtrend. After this breakdown, the price continued to witness downward pressure until it hit a low of $1.82 in late December 2025. The recovery that emerged in early January 2025 pushed $XRP to $2.41, allowing it to retest the EMA as it attempted a break back above it.
However, this breakout attempt failed and has now led to steeper declines for $XRP. Specifically, $XRP collapsed to a floor of $1.15 on Feb. 6 before recovering to the current price of $1.42. EGRAG expects the recovery to pick up momentum, potentially pushing $XRP’s price to a high of $2.2 before another pullback takes $XRP to $0.78.
This $0.78 level aligns with a historically important horizontal trendline identified by EGRAG as the Binance lowest wick. From here, the analyst believes $XRP could stage a full-blown upsurge toward the $13 target. After $13, $XRP could drop again to $3.3, aligning with the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle that has lingered since $XRP started trading. However, the rebound from here could take $XRP to $200.
Historical Context
Notably, the $13 target aligns with historical data. For context, this $13 price represents a 1,030% increase from $XRP’s lows of around $1.15, which it recently recovered from this month.
Interestingly, after $XRP dropped from a failed retest of the pivotal EMA in Q4 2018, it eventually soared from late August 2020 to $1.96 by April 2021. This marked a 1,030% rise from previous lows. EGRAG believes a similar 1,030% increase could ensue this time.