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On Thursday, Feb. 19, $XRP slipped below its 200-week moving average for the first time since breaking above it in November 2024. The breakdown took place just a day before the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its advance estimate for Q4, 2025, GDP.
On the weekly chart of Bitfinex presented by TradingView, $XRP breached the 200-week moving average around $1.419, a level that had acted as benchmark for the price since late 2024. The loss of that floor "turns the switch" for the price of $XRP from rally/consolidation to prolonged correction.
Relative Strength Index readings hover in the low 30s — persistent selling pressure rather than panic liquidation. The next reference points for the price of $XRP are at $1.1211 (early February sell-off) and $1. The latter is the level where $XRP found a technical bottom after the "Black Friday" liquidation event worth $40 billion in different estimates.
Immediate resistance remains clustered at $1.49 to $1.50, the area where recent relief rallies stalled this month.
Will U.S. Q4 GDP release reverse $XRP breakdown?
Now to the second part of the article: the Q4,2025, GDP of the U.S. is set to be released on Friday, Feb. 20. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects 3.6% annualized growth for Q4, 2025, while the New York Fed Nowcast stands at 2.7%. Consensus estimates range from 1% to 2.5%, all implying moderation from Q3’s 4.4% pace.
A figure closer to the upper end could reinforce the soft-landing expectations and stabilize risk assets, including crypto. A downside surprise would likely strengthen the dollar and extend pressure across high-beta tokens.
$XRP-specific factors complicate the picture. On-chain activity on the $XRP Ledger has declined in recent weeks, yet social sentiment metrics show a five-week high in bullish commentary, as per Santiment, driven by institutional DeFi updates like this week's Permissioned DEX adjustment.
For now, $XRP trades below a multiyear technical benchmark (200-week MA) amid nervousness associated with macro data. The GDP release on Feb. 20 may determine whether this break becomes a deeper trend or a short-lived macro flush.