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Data from $XRP’s cycle math shows that the $XRP price may still drop lower this cycle before it can find a solid bottom.
The bull market that defined 2025 appears to have given way to a more bearish market environment. The prevalent bearish pressure has dealt a blow to $XRP’s price action, leading to a 60% decline from the July 2025 all-time peak of $3.66.
At some point, $XRP dropped to a 15-month local low of $1.11 before recovering to the current price of around $1.41. While multiple market participants believe the $1.11 floor marked this cycle’s bottom, cycle math from historical context suggests $XRP could drop further to the $0.75 to $0.85 range before finding a bottom.
Key Points
- Amid the ongoing downtrend that picked up in Q4 2025, the $XRP price collapsed to a 15-month low of $1.11 on Feb. 6 before recovering above $1.4.
- Most market participants believe this floor price may have marked the bottom of the downturn, but data suggests steeper declines could play out.
- An $XRP cycle math which leveraged historical data on past bottoms shows that subsequent cycle bottoms have been 2.8x higher than the immediate past ones.
- This data indicates that $XRP could bottom at $0.78 in the ongoing cycle, translating to a price range of $0.75 to $0.85.
$XRP’s Crash to $1.11
Well-regarded market technician EGRAG Crypto highlighted these figures as some investors continue to anticipate the bottom for this cycle. At the same time, another camp insists that the $1.11 low marked the lowest price for $XRP.
For context, the broader market’s bearish pressure intensified in early February, with $XRP recording a steep 19.62% crash on Feb. 5, as it lost the $1.5 psychological mark on that day. The selloffs spilled into the next day, resulting in a steeper drop to $1.11 on Feb. 6.
This price level, which marked a 15-month low for $XRP, represented a 69.7% drop from $XRP’s all-time high of $3.66. Due to the extent of this decline, several market analysts and investors have insisted that the $1.11 low may have marked $XRP’s bottom for this cycle.
$XRP Cycle Low Could Come in at $0.75 to $0.85
However, in his latest market commentary, EGRAG suggested that the bottom could be lower, aligning with projections from fellow analyst CoinsKid. He presented what he called the $XRP cycle math, using data from historical context to assess where $XRP could find its bottom in the ongoing downtrend.
Specifically, the market analyst called attention to the fact that $XRP saw its market bottom in the 2020 bear market at $0.10. Notably, this low emerged in March 2020. Meanwhile, the 2022 bear market bottom came in at $0.28 when $XRP dropped to a low of $0.2870 by June 2022.
EGRAG pointed out that the $0.28 bottom in 2022 represented a 2.8x increase from the 2020 bottom at $0.10. This represents a natural effect in the crypto market, as subsequent bear market bottoms often emerge at higher prices than previous ones due to the consistent uptrend crypto assets witness.
Now, EGRAG has calculated $XRP’s subsequent bottoms to be 2.8x higher than the immediate past ones. If this pattern continues, he calculates $XRP’s next bottom to come in at $0.78, placing it within the $0.75 to $0.85 range.
Implication from Current Prices
EGRAG said that in his view, every market cycle pushes $XRP to a higher support level, reduces how sharply it can fall, and follows an actual pattern instead of random moves. He added that while markets don’t move in exactly the same way each time, $XRP’s trend of setting higher lows keeps repeating.
Currently, $XRP changes hands at $1.41, already down 22.48% this year alone. For $XRP to collapse to the $0.85 to $0.75 region, its price would need to drop an additional 39.7% to 46.8%. The last time $XRP saw this price range was in November 2024.