Dogecoin Price Prediction: DOGE Surges 18% On X Smart Cashtags But Faces Fibonacci Resistance

Dogecoin price today trades near $0.0999, down 1.05% in the past 24 hours after failing to sustain gains above $0.115 following an 18% surge triggered by X’s Smart Cashtags announcement. The move places $DOGE back below the $0.10 psychological level as sellers defend Fibonacci resistance and the rally loses steam.

X Smart Cashtags Trigger 18% Surge

Nikita Bier, Head of Product at X, confirmed the platform will roll out Smart Cashtags within weeks, enabling users to trade stocks and crypto directly from the timeline. The announcement immediately triggered a sharp reaction in Dogecoin, given Elon Musk’s long-standing association with the token and X’s massive user base.

Memecoins are uniquely sensitive to platform-level news, particularly when the news involves Musk and a potential new demand channel. The prospect of millions of X users gaining direct crypto trading access from their feeds accelerated sentiment rapidly, pushing $DOGE from below $0.09 to a high near $0.115 within 24 hours.

However, the rally remains narrative-driven rather than fundamentally anchored. Smart Cashtags are not live yet, and actual demand from the feature remains speculative. The price action reflects anticipation rather than adoption, leaving $DOGE vulnerable to a pullback if sentiment fades before the feature launches.

Open Interest Slips As Options Bets Surge

According to Coinglass, Dogecoin’s open interest declined 0.72% to $1.18 billion despite the 18% price surge. Volume fell 28.49% to $2.34 billion. The drop in open interest alongside rising price suggests short covering drove a portion of the rally rather than new long positions entering the market.

Options open interest surged 173.14% to $106.40K, signaling traders are positioning for continued volatility rather than directional conviction. Long/short ratios show extreme bullish skew: Binance accounts at 2.59, OKX at 3.59, and top traders at 3.09. The 24-hour liquidation data shows $3.95 million in long liquidations versus $951.32K in shorts, confirming the rally triggered forced exits in both directions.

When open interest declines while price rises and options activity surges, it typically indicates a short-squeeze driven move rather than sustained accumulation. The structure suggests the rally was reactive and may lack follow-through without a fresh catalyst.

Fibonacci Resistance Caps Recovery Attempt

On the daily chart, Dogecoin is testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1088 after bouncing from the $0.079 low. The 0.5 Fibonacci level sits at $0.1179, with the 0.618 at $0.1270 representing the next major resistance cluster. Supertrend flipped bearish at $0.1153, confirming sellers retain control of the daily trend.

The chart shows:

• 20-day EMA at $0.1039 as immediate resistance
• Supertrend bearish at $0.1153 capping rallies
• Fibonacci 0.382 level at $0.1088 tested and rejected
• $0.079 Fibonacci base acting as macro support

Dogecoin dropped from above $0.28 in early January to $0.079 by February 11, losing 72% from peak to trough. The X Smart Cashtags announcement triggered the sharpest single-day recovery since the crash, but price failed to close above the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Sellers defended that zone, pushing $DOGE back below $0.10.

A daily close above $0.1088 would reclaim the 0.382 level and place $0.1153 back in range. Breaking above the Supertrend at $0.1153 would signal the first sign of trend reversal and open the door to the 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.1179.

Intraday Structure Shows Post-Spike Consolidation

$DOGE Price Action (Source: TradingView)

The 1-hour chart shows $DOGE consolidating near $0.1 after the sharp spike to $0.115. Parabolic SAR sits at $0.10114, acting as immediate resistance. RSI holds at 41.71, neutral but declining as price gives back gains from the announcement rally.

The structure shows:

• Price fading back to $0.100 after rejection at $0.115
• SAR flipping bearish above current price
• Lower highs forming since the $0.115 peak

Buyers are attempting to hold $0.099 as support. A breakdown below $0.099 would expose $0.095 and eventually retest the $0.090 demand zone. A reclaim of $0.10114 and a break above $0.105 would flip the SAR and signal buyers are attempting to extend the recovery.

The $0.1 psychological level is the immediate battle zone. Sellers are defending it aggressively post-spike, while buyers look to establish it as support before attempting another move higher.

Outlook: Will Dogecoin Go Up?

The next move depends on whether $DOGE can hold $0.099 and reclaim the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $0.1088.

• Bullish case: A close above $0.1088 with volume and a break above the Supertrend at $0.1153 would confirm the recovery and place $0.1270 back in range. The Smart Cashtags launch could provide the catalyst needed to sustain the move.
• Bearish case: A breakdown below $0.099 exposes $0.090, with further downside toward $0.079 if the narrative fades before the feature goes live. Losing $0.099 confirms the rally was a dead cat bounce.