Solana (SOL) Price Prediction: Can $86 Trigger a Breakout?

Solana trades near $85 after a sharp decline from the $148.88 swing high. The asset remains under pressure on the 4-hour chart despite a recent rebound. Sellers controlled price action for weeks and forced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

However, buyers stepped in near $67.78 and triggered a short-term recovery. Consequently, traders now watch whether this bounce can evolve into a sustainable reversal.

Broader Trend Still Points Lower

$SOL continues to reflect a broader bearish structure on the 4H timeframe. Price broke below several Fibonacci retracement levels during the decline. Hence, previous support zones now act as resistance barriers.

The token currently hovers near the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $86.90. This area serves as immediate resistance and a short-term decision point.

Additionally, the Average Directional Index sits near 25, signaling moderate trend strength. Momentum has cooled compared to the earlier impulsive drop.

This slowdown suggests selling pressure has eased, yet buyers still lack strong conviction. Moreover, the recent base formation around the $84–$85 zone indicates temporary stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal.

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If buyers defend the $84 support cluster, $SOL could challenge $86.90 again. A decisive move above this barrier may open the path toward $98.76, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Reclaiming that zone would shift short-term momentum in favor of bulls.

Besides, a break above $108.33, the 0.5 retracement, would strengthen the case for a broader recovery. The $117.90 level remains critical for any sustained bullish continuation.

However, failure to clear $86.90 increases downside risk. In that scenario, price could revisit $77.53, which aligns with lower volatility bands. A breakdown below $67.78 would confirm continuation of the larger downtrend.

Derivatives and Spot Flows Show Cooling Speculation

Open interest data adds further context to the price structure. Leveraged positions expanded aggressively during prior rallies. Open interest surged from below $3 billion to nearly $10 billion near the peak. Consequently, the recent drop toward $5.2 billion signals long liquidations and reduced risk appetite.

Spot market flows also reveal alternating accumulation and distribution phases. Significant inflows accompanied previous rallies toward the $200 region. However, strong outflows followed during profit-taking periods. Recently, flows have compressed, reflecting weaker conviction. Sustained inflows would need to emerge to confirm renewed bullish momentum.

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Technical Outlook For Solana Price

Key levels remain clearly defined as Solana trades inside a broader corrective structure. Price continues to recover from the $67.78 swing low but still faces strong overhead resistance. The short-term structure shows stabilization; however, the higher timeframe trend remains fragile.

Upside levels: $86.90 (0.236 Fib) stands as immediate resistance. A sustained break above this level may open the door toward $98.76 (0.382 Fib). If bullish momentum strengthens, the next targets sit at $108.33 (0.5 Fib) and $117.90 (0.618 Fib). Reclaiming $98–$100 would significantly improve short-term sentiment and challenge the pattern of lower highs.

Downside levels: The $84–$85 zone acts as initial support. Below that, $77.53 forms a key technical cushion aligned with volatility bands. The major swing low at $67.78 remains the critical structural floor. A breakdown beneath this level would confirm continuation of the broader downtrend and expose deeper retracement risk.

Resistance ceiling: The $98–$100 region serves as the medium-term momentum shift zone. Price must reclaim this cluster decisively to transition from relief bounce to sustainable recovery.

The technical picture suggests $SOL is consolidating after a sharp deleveraging phase. Open interest has cooled from previous extremes, signaling reduced speculative pressure. Spot flows have also compressed, reflecting weaker conviction from both bulls and bears.

Will Solana Go Up?

Solana’s near-term direction depends on whether buyers can defend $84 support and push above $86.90. A breakout above this level could accelerate momentum toward $98.76. Strong inflows and expanding open interest would likely confirm that move.

However, failure to reclaim $86.90 increases the probability of another pullback toward $77.50 or even $67.78. For now, $SOL trades in a decisive zone where confirmation above resistance or breakdown below support will determine the next major leg.

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