Solana price breaks below $80 as RSI sinks to 25 — is capitulation underway?

Solana price has slipped beneath a critical support level, with momentum indicators flashing deep oversold conditions as traders re-assess risk.

Solana was trading at $78.33 at press time, down 2.7% over the past 24 hours. The token has dropped 45% in the last 30 days and is now roughly 73% below its January 2025 all-time high. Over the past week, the price has ranged between $76.81 and $89.28, with sellers maintaining control.

Trading activity has fallen. At $3.83 billion, Solana’s ($SOL) 24-hour spot volume was down 15%. On the derivatives side, CoinGlass data shows that open interest dropped 3% to $4.91 billion, while volume dropped 12% to $10.28 billion.

The decline in open interest indicates that traders are closing positions rather than opening new aggressive bets. That kind of unwinding is common during the later stages of a correction. Still, it should not be mistaken for a confirmed bottom.

Why Solana has struggled

Solana’s weakness comes after a sharp pullback from its late 2024 and early 2025 rally. Memecoin activity, including tokens with political themes, attracted a lot of speculative capital to the ecosystem during that run. Leverage accumulated across derivatives markets as liquidity rapidly increased.

When that momentum cooled, the structure weakened. Long positions began to unwind, and stop-losses were triggered in succession.

Selling pressure increased as a result. Solana is a high-beta asset that often amplifies broader market movements. It tends to fall more when sentiment changes, but it can also outperform in high risk-on situations.

In periods of uncertainty, traders often prefer deeper liquidity, and that may favor Bitcoin and Ethereum. Compared to those markets, $SOL’s thinner liquidity can amplify volatility during deleveraging.

Declining decentralized exchange volumes have also pressured the token. According to DefiLlama data, Solana’s January DEX volume was $117 billion. That was an improvement over the previous two months, but it was still less than the $155 billion that was recorded in October. Ecosystem-driven demand for $SOL has weakened as speculative trading continues fade.

Although long-term projections are largely positive, pointing to the rise in stablecoin usage and micropayments, there haven’t been many short-term catalysts, making the price susceptible to technical pressure.

Solana price technical analysis

The break below $80 is technically significant. The level had acted as psychological support and formed the lower edge of a recent consolidation range. Once it gave way, the broader downtrend that began after the January peak near $150 was reinforced.

Solana daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

$SOL now trades beneath both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Price is also positioned below the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Meanwhile, the bands themselves are widening, a sign that volatility is expanding.

When price continues to hug the lower band during that expansion phase, it usually reflects trend continuation rather than an immediate reversal.

Momentum indicators align with the weakness. Deep in oversold territory, the relative strength index has dropped to 25. Though no bullish divergence has yet to form, such readings may precede brief relief rallies. RSI remains below its signal average, which suggests sellers still dominate near-term flows.

$SOL would need to firmly reclaim $80 with conviction in order for bullish momentum to resume. A sustained move toward $90 would be the next test. Beyond that, the $98–$100 region stands as a major resistance cluster.

On the downside, the $72–$70 area marks the next support zone. If that fails, attention shifts to the $65–$68 range, with stronger psychological support resting near $60.

The current setup reflects a market under pressure. Whether this evolves into capitulation or stabilizes into a base will depend on how the price behaves around the $70 region.