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$XRP is now on the verge of backtesting a previous breakout from an 8-year resistance trendline, and this could trigger the reversal push.
The crypto market has continued to face bearish pressure, with the latest recovery push facing a stern roadblock. $XRP also witnessed this recent setback, dropping 0.44% on Thursday, and now changing hands at $1.35 amid a 52.4% decline since Q4 2025.
However, data from the 1-month chart indicates that the ongoing downtrend is “part of the plan,” as $XRP seems to be eyeing a backtest of a resistance trendline breakout. For context, this trendline forms part of a multi-year symmetrical triangle that $XRP breached in November 2024. Now, a successful backtest could set the stage for a full-blown trend reversal.
Key Points
- $XRP has suffered massive losses alongside the rest of the crypto market, down 26.16% year-to-date and 52.4% since Q4 2025.
- Market data indicates that the downtrend, which has persisted for five consecutive months now, may be part of a natural plan following a breakout.
- $XRP broke above the upper resistance trendline of a multi-year symmetrical triangle in November 2024, soaring to as high as $3.4 by January 2025.
- Now, the ongoing retracement appears to be a natural effort from the market to backtest the resistance trendline.
- A successful backtest of this trendline could set the stage for a bullish trend reversal, while a break back into the triangle would lead to bearish implications.
$XRP Breaks Above the Symmetrical Triangle
This situation was recently spotlighted by Chart Nerd, a well-known market commentator, as the market grapples with the ongoing weakness. For context, the current downtrend followed an earlier bullish period, which featured a breakout from a symmetrical triangle that had capped $XRP’s growth for eight years.
Notably, this triangle started forming in early 2017, as $XRP soared from $0.005 in March 2017 to the peak of $3.31 by January 2018. From here, a downturn emerged, leading to consistent lower highs. Meanwhile, on the downside, $XRP managed to maintain a trend of higher lows despite the price weakness at the time.
This combination of lower highs and higher lows led to the formation of a symmetrical triangle on the 1-month chart, which lingered for seven years. $XRP staged a breakout above the upper resistance trendline during the November 2024 rally, with prices eventually pushing to a peak of $3.4 by January 2025 before another recovery push led to $3.66 in July 2025.
Market Now Attempting a Backtest
Since then, it has been downhill, with $XRP currently down 63% from the $3.66 peak. With $XRP seeing consistent monthly declines since October 2025, the chart data indicates that the altcoin may now be heading toward backtesting the November 2024 breakout.
Such a backtest is usually a natural market process, as it represents a necessary step to evaluate whether the breakout has enough strength to continue the previous uptrend. As a result, Chart Nerd emphasized that this backtest of the resistance trendline, which has now lingered for 8 years, was “part of the plan.”
He believes what the market needs now is a “touch-and-go” signal. This would occur only if $XRP drops to “touch” the resistance trendline and then recovers from it, making the backtest successful. If this happens, Chart Nerd places the recovery target between $7.7 and $33, with multiple Fibonacci extensions, including 1.272 ($9.13), 1.414 ($15.02), and 1.618 ($30.7), existing within this range.
Important Caveat
However, $XRP’s push toward the resistance trendline would not guarantee an automatic recovery. Notably, if the asset fails to maintain a price above the trendline and instead breaks back into the triangle, this would invalidate the bullish structure. In this case, further declines could emerge within the triangle.