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Will Solana’s Price Recovery Be Challenging? Here’s What On-Chain Signals Suggest

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Solana has staged a sharp intraday recovery after recent losses pressured the price earlier this week. $SOL bounced strongly as the broader crypto market added nearly $200 billion in value.

Aggressive dip buying prevented deeper losses, helping Solana stabilize and post a 12% daily gain despite lingering market uncertainty.

Solana LTHs Are Not So Bullish Yet

On-chain data shows long-term holder buying momentum is slowing. The HODLer Net Position Change has declined, indicating reduced accumulation from investors who typically support prices during downturns. This shift followed $SOL’s sharp pullback over the past week, which appears to have dampened long-term conviction.

A sustained recovery depends on whether long-term holders resume accumulation. If buying momentum remains weak, Solana may struggle to build durable upside. Reduced support from this cohort limits demand absorption, increasing the risk that short-term rallies fade without broader participation from long-term investors.

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Solana HODLer Net Position Change
Solana HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. The Money Flow Index is approaching the oversold threshold below 20.0. A move into this zone typically signals selling saturation, often preceding periods of stabilization or short-term rebounds in price.

Historically, Solana has entered oversold territory only three times in the past two and a half years. Each instance coincided with notable price stabilization or reversal. If the indicator slips further, it may help $SOL pause its decline and attract renewed dip-buying interest from traders.

Solana MFI
Solana MFI. Source: TradingView

$SOL Price Recovery Still Likely

Solana price is trading near $88 at the time of writing after climbing 12% in the past 24 hours. Earlier in the session, $SOL dropped roughly 13% to an intraday low. Strong dip buying prevented a close near $67, highlighting active demand at lower levels.

Support from the broader market could allow $SOL to push above $90 in the near term. A recovery rally would require reclaiming $100 as support. Securing that level would confirm improving momentum and open the path toward a move near $110 as confidence returns.

Solana Price Analysis.
Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risk persists if long-term holder selling continues. Failure to reclaim $100 could cap upside and leave $SOL range-bound near $90. Under weaker conditions, the price may retreat toward $78. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and extend Solana’s corrective phase.

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