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$XRP has seen renewed bearish pressure since its Jan. 28 high, recently slipping into an important Fibonacci region called the golden pocket.
$XRP has continued its recent slide after the $1.93 high on Jan. 28, now trading around $1.59 within the golden pocket. However, the latest move was not unexpected, as it represented the completion of a corrective phase that had been developing for weeks.
Interestingly, amid the ongoing downturn, $XRP appears to be forming a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart, bolstering confidence in an imminent recovery. How high $XRP rebounds from here depends on its ability to reclaim and hold critical levels above $1.78.
Key Points
- $XRP hit a high of around $1.93 on Jan. 28 before selling off sharply into the $1.55 to $1.59 range.
- Its price action since Q4 2025 has followed a downward channel with lower highs and weakening momentum.
- The latest drop was a Wave 3 decline, which recently reached the 0.618 golden pocket, aligning with the $1.55 to $1.59 support zone.
- A bullish divergence on the 4-hour RSI formed as the price hit the Wave 3 low, indicating reduced selling pressure.
- The first upside resistance for a potential Wave 4 rebound sits at $1.78, followed by higher resistance at $1.93 and $2.03.
- Holding above $2.03 would reduce the risk of another drop, while failure at resistance could still send $XRP back toward $1.55 or lower.
$XRP’s Q4 2025 Decline Followed an Elliott Wave Structure
Market analyst Casi called attention to these important levels amid the escalating downturn. In her latest analysis, she shared a 4-hour $XRP chart showing that price action since Q4 2025 has moved within an Elliott Wave structure.
Specifically, the Q4 2025 decline concluded with the completion of a corrective wave that fit into an Elliott Wave pattern. Notably, the structure showed a prior Wave 3 low around $1.8 followed by a push higher into Wave 4 in early January 2026.
This rebound peaked at $2.41 by Jan. 6, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $2.4128. However, after this peak, the $XRP price turned lower, forming a new corrective sub-wave that has now pushed it to the $1.5 region.
The New Corrective Sub-wave
In this corrective sub-wave, the decline was started by Wave 1, leading to a low of $2.02 by Jan. 13, while Wave 2 produced only a shallow rebound that pushed prices to the Fibonacci 0.382 level ($2.17). In Elliott Wave theory, shallow second waves often lead to deeper fourth-wave retracements later on.
Notably, the Wave 3 led to the ongoing downtrend. Specifically, $XRP dropped into the 0.618 Fib retracement, called the golden pocket. The sell-off reached the 1.618 Fib extension for Wave 3, placing the low in the $1.55 to $1.59 range. Casi noted that this represented a textbook Wave 3 completion.
Could $XRP Stage a Relief Bounce from Here?
As $XRP reached the Wave 3 low, momentum started to change. For instance, the price printed a lower low, but the RSI formed a higher low, creating a bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart. This suggests that selling pressure weakened as the price entered the golden pocket.
Based on this, Casi expects a Wave 4 relief rally to begin from this region. She identified $1.78 as the first major upside test. This level marks the 0.382 retracement of the Wave 3 decline and aligns with a former support area that broke during the sell-off. As a result, it could act as the first meaningful resistance during a rebound.
Levels That Will Determine What Comes Next
Casi also shared higher targets if the Wave 4 move gains strength. Notably, because Wave 2 retraced only shallowly, Wave 4 could climb higher than usual. In this case, $XRP could revisit the $1.93 level, followed by a possible move toward $2.03, which represents the macro 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.
Meanwhile, the $2.03 area represents the most critical level. According to Casi, $XRP must reclaim this price and hold it as support to remove the need for another leg lower. A sustained move above $2.03 would raise the chances that the final Wave 5 decline fails to develop. Until that happens, downside risk remains.