Here is why Ethereum's ‘brutal stumble’ looks exactly like the start of the last bull run: Asia Morning Briefing

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Crypto markets enter the "Year of the Horse" looking less like a victory parade and more like a racehorse at the starting gate: muscles are tense after a long stumble.

The $ETH versus $BTC chart, in particular, is drawing attention because it is beginning to resemble the same stride pattern seen before the last major crypto bull run.

The Year of the Horse metaphor is less about destiny and more about tempo. Horse years in market folklore are associated with speed, abrupt directional changes, and momentum that builds quickly once it starts. Applied to crypto, that translates into an expectation of sharper swings, faster capital rotation, and the possibility that leadership shifts away from pure bitcoin dominance toward higher beta assets if liquidity conditions stabilize.

The reason the $ETH versus $BTC chart is getting noticed is because of a sequence that occurred once before and now appears to be repeating.

In the last major cycle, $ETH bottomed against bitcoin roughly 9 months before gold reached its peak, then suffered another brutal 30%-40% relative decline that convinced many the trade was broken.

Instead, that final stumble marked the bottom. As gold cooled and defensive positioning unwound, capital rotated back into higher beta crypto, sending Ethereum more than 300% higher against bitcoin and helping ignite the broader bull market.

Today, the structure looks familiar rather than identical. The $ETH-to-$BTC chart hit a relative low about 9 months before gold’s recent high and is already down around 31%, putting it in the same historical drawdown range that preceded a violent reversal up.

QCP said traders are still buying protection against further downside, but not with the same urgency seen during last year’s sharp selloff, suggesting caution rather than outright panic.

At the same time, J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Yuxuan Tang wrote in an email note that gold’s longer-term fundamentals remain intact despite recent pullbacks, arguing that central bank and institutional demand continue to provide a structural floor.

That push-and-pull between resilient safe-haven demand and washed-out crypto positioning is what gives the $ETH-$BTC ratio its intrigue. In Horse-year terms, the market is not yet sprinting, but it may no longer be limping.

However, the ratio is more a gauge of temperament than a prediction, suggesting that if liquidity steadies and bitcoin's dominance loosens, capital rotation could accelerate quickly. Horses do not usually walk when they finally move. They gallop.

And that gallop, at least according to prediction markets, looks more like a run-up from current levels, not to a new record high. Kalshi bettors say bitcoin will get to 105K in 2026, while on Polymarket, punters assign only a 29% chance it breaks the magic number of $126,000.

Hopefully, this horse can finish the race.

Market Movement

$BTC: Bitcoin is trading near $78,800 as a brief liquidation-driven rebound runs into thin support above $70,000, leaving markets focused on the $60,000 to $65,000 long-term holder and 200-week average zone as the next major floor unless U.S. equities roll over.

$ETH: Ethereum is trading near $2,345 after a short rebound from weekend selling, but with steeper weekly losses than bitcoin and weaker structural support, markets remain cautious that price could continue drifting lower unless broader risk appetite improves.

Gold: Gold is trading near $4,830 as prices attempt to stabilize after a margin-driven selloff, but elevated volatility and a firmer dollar are keeping the rebound fragile rather than signaling a clean return to the prior uptrend.

Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 rose about 2.4% to lead gains across Asia as optimism over a new U.S.–India trade deal lifted regional risk sentiment, with South Korea’s Kospi surging over 5% and broader markets tracking a rebound in U.S. equities despite ongoing volatility in gold, silver and crypto.

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