u.today
February is off to a bloody start, but $XRP just might have defended its most important technical structure in over a year - its monthly Bollinger midband against Bitcoin.
With the crypto market taking a nosedive, $XRP/$BTC finished January just above the 0.00002052 line represented by the 20-month moving average, which has been the foundation of the whole 2024-2026 supercycle move, as visible on TradingView.
For those not familiar, this midband has basically been acting like a gravitational pivot since $XRP's big +250% breakout in late 2024. Every monthly test since then - whether it is a rejection, reclamation or wick - has shown whether the trend keeps going or not.
February opened at 0.00002107 $BTC for $XRP, showing that the structure held by a fraction, but held nonetheless. This keeps a path to 0.00003291, the upper Bollinger band, suggesting a potential upside of +58%.
Check out the daily chart. $XRP/$BTC just bounced from 0.00002007 after dipping into the lower band for a bit, which hints at fresh accumulation. The compression forming on daily candles also shows a volatility coil that could go either way, but right now it looks like it will push on, not crash.
Main "why not?" for $XRP
On the other hand, the overall feeling on the market is really pessimistic. Bitcoin's been down -10.1% in January and -0.73% in February. $XRP lost 10.6% in January but only dropped -0.45% in February.
Historically, $XRP posts median returns of -7.23% in February, but when it is positive - as in 2022 with +26.3% or 2024 with +17.1% - it often leads to parabolic growth.
The question is not whether $XRP will beat $BTC in dollar terms. It is about whether it takes the lead in the $BTC pair, where all the altcoin season stories start. The monthly band says the game is still on. If $XRP remains above 0.00002052 this month, it is all locked in.