thecryptobasic.com
$XRP has recently closed below the 100 EMA on the weekly chart, a development that previously led to a 60% price decline.
With the broader crypto market facing sustained bearish pressure, $XRP has suffered some of the worst losses over the past few weeks, having recorded four consecutive bearish weekly candles since Jan. 5, and is on track to secure the fifth consecutive loss this new week, now trading below $1.6.
However, a more troubling development has seen $XRP close below the pivotal 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) support, pointing to potentially steeper declines. The last time such a decisive close below this area played out in 2022, $XRP recorded a 60% crash.
Key Points
- Amid the ongoing selling pressure in the broader market, $XRP has suffered some of the worst losses, down 29% from its yearly peak.
- The current downturn has led to four consecutive bearish weekly candlesticks for $XRP, with the current candle already 1.9% down.
- In a more troubling development, $XRP has closed below the 100-week EMA, now trading well below this pivotal level.
- The last time $XRP witnessed a decisive close of this magnitude below the 100-week EMA was in 2022, which led to a rapid 60% crash.
$XRP’s Interaction Around the 100W EMA
Market analyst Chart Nerd spotlighted this important development in a recent commentary. For context, $XRP traded around the 100-week EMA from 2023 to 2024, casually slipping below and above it, as prices ranged between a low of $0.42 to highs around $0.7.
However, following the Trump-led upsurge in November 2024, $XRP pushed way above the moving average. For context, as of early December 2024, $XRP hit a peak of $2.9 while the 100-week EMA stood at just $0.64. As prices traded at a new range of $2 to $3 throughout 2025, the moving average gradually saw an uptick.
Notably, $XRP again started retesting the 100-week EMA from October 2025 as prices saw rapid declines below $3. The first retest occurred on Oct. 10 when $XRP crashed to $1.58 and rebounded immediately. Another retest emerged in November 2025 when $XRP dropped to $1.81. Meanwhile, the latest retest occurred on Dec. 31 as $XRP hit $1.8091.
$XRP Slips Below the 100W EMA
Each of these retests followed a rebound above the EMA, but the case was different two weeks ago. Specifically, when $XRP closed the week ending Jan. 25 at a price of $1.83, this close played out below the 100-week EMA, which stood at $1.87 at the time.
According to Chart Nerd, the last time this bearish close happened was in April 2022, and $XRP recorded a subsequent crash of 60% to an ascending support trendline that has held the market together during downturns since 2020.
With the EMA sitting at $1.87 at the time of the analysis, the market watcher suggested that a similar 60% drop from the breakdown price of $1.87 would take $XRP to $0.7490, aligning with the ascending support trendline. Currently, $XRP trades for $1.55.
Important Caveat
However, Chart Nerd admitted that this was merely a theory, as it may not play out. According to him, while it remains a theory, investors should consider it a warning sign. Notably, there is no guarantee $XRP could actually drop to as low as $0.7490.
Meanwhile, Chart Nerd stressed that wherever the downward push takes $XRP, the market could witness a recovery run back above the 100-week EMA, which currently sits at $1.86. He suggested that reclaiming the pivotal moving average to avoid steeper declines should be $XRP’s primary objective now.