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The $XRP channel map may be pointing to an ambitious three-digit price target in a “black swan tail up” scenario.
$XRP has faced bearish pressure alongside the rest of the crypto market, but market data suggests the crypto asset is still on track for greater price heights. Specifically, the $XRP channel map, a multi-year channel that has dictated $XRP’s price action, points to an ultimate target of $200 should a full-blown bull market emerge.
This channel map emerged in 2014 and has consistently guided $XRP’s price action over the past 12 years, with the path now potentially leading to a $200 price. Notably, this target comes from an analysis of historical structure around the channel map, especially $XRP’s price action during the 2017 rally.
Key Points
- The $XRP channel map, a multi-year channel that has dictated $XRP’s price action since it emerged in 2014, points to a potential push to $200.
- This target comes from an observation of $XRP’s price movement within this channel, especially its price action during the 2017 bullish run.
- After $XRP recovers from the current bearish phase, market data first points to three targets of $4.5, $10, and $27 before the ultimate $200 mark.
- While this $200 price represents a 677% rise from the channel’s top at $27, it would mark a 10,538% increase from current price levels of around $1.88.
$XRP Still on Track for Bullish Push
The analysis pointing to this target came from watcher EGRAG Crypto, whose recent commentary suggests that $XRP may still be on track for outsized gains despite recent struggles. For context, since pulling back from $2.41 on Jan. 6, $XRP has struggled alongside the rest of the crypto market, down 22% from the yearly peak.
Despite this downtrend, data from EGRAG’s chart shows that $XRP remains in a respectable position within the multi-year ascending channel on the monthly timeframe. With $XRP currently trading for $1.88, it has respected the immediate diagonal support, looking to breach the resistance for an upward push. A favorable push from here could lead to greater prices.
$XRP Historical Data Gives Clues
To determine how far $XRP could go from the current position, EGRAG called attention to historical data. Specifically, $XRP traded within a similar position inside this channel in 2017, albeit considerably lower. From that position, $XRP soared past four resistance trendlines overhead and eventually hit the top of the channel at $0.3389 by May 2017.
After a pullback and consolidation from this peak, $XRP witnessed a second bullish run, which took prices to a new high of $3.31 by January 2018, way above the channel’s top. EGRAG pointed out that the rally saw $XRP jump by more than 677% above the top in what he calls an extended move.
Extended Move Now Eyes $200
EGRAG’s $200 target hinges on $XRP repeating this explosive run. According to him, the current position aligns with the 2017 geometry.
Notably, from the current position, he expects $XRP to breach two resistance trendlines overhead, which sit at $4.5 and $10, respectively. EGRAG calls the $4.5 mark the “high conviction structural,” giving it an 80-90% probability of playing out. Meanwhile, he tags the $10 level “expansion dependent,” with a 60-75% chance.
After crushing these roadblocks, $XRP would reach the channel’s top, which now sits at $27. The analyst calls this the “cycle peak scenario.” According to him, there is a 50-55% probability of $XRP reaching this target. EGRAG then sets the full macro extension target at $200, which would represent a 677% rise from the channel’s top. He dubs this the “black swan tail up scenario.”
With $XRP currently trading for $1.88, a rally to $200 would represent a 10,538% rise, which is highly improbable with current market conditions. With $XRP giving the $200 target a mere 20-35% chance, it’s more likely not to play out. Even the lower targets remain highly speculative. As a result, investors should not take this as investment advice.