Traders bet on calm as Fed rate cut looms

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The main event for the crypto market on Wednesday is the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, due at 2 p.m. Key volatility indexes, however, indicate that traders do not expect extraordinary price swings.

While the bank is expected to keep interest rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, Chairman Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference could steal the show.

Traders will want to know whether Powell and his team see the pause in rate cuts as temporary, or whether the recent strong U.S. GDP data and forecasts of an inflation resurgence have made them more cautious. The former scenario could accelerate the recovery rally in bitcoin and the broader market.

That said, Volmex's one-day implied volatility index tied to bitcoin remains pinned near an annualized 40%, right in the middle of the monthslong range of 20%-60%. That equates to a 24-hour price swing of just 2%. One-day volatility indexes for XRP, $ETH, and $SOL also indicate only mild volatility ahead.

Bitcoin topped $89,000 early today, extending its recovery from weekend lows near $86,000. Other major tokens also found a footing, including decentralized exchange Hyperliquid's $HYPE token, which has gained over 50% this week. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has rallied over 17% in 24 hours, a sign of renewed speculative interest in the market.

Apart from the Fed, the key question for the market is whether the U.S. government can avoid another shutdown as the Congress approaches its Friday funding deadline.

"A timely stopgap or agreement should compress near-term risk premia and let crypto trade more like straight beta," QCP Capital said in a market note. "A brief lapse can still produce a quick risk-off wobble that retraces once a deal lands. But a drawn-out standoff is the scenario that meaningfully tightens liquidity and forces broader de-risking."

In traditional markets, oil rallied to a four-month high. A sustained move higher could generate an inflationary impulse worldwide, weakening the case for rate cuts. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Jan. 28, 1 p.m.: Hedera Network to undergo a mainnet upgrade expected to take approximately 40 minutes to complete.
• Macro
  • Jan. 28, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision (Prev. 2.25%)
  • Jan. 28, 2:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision est. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%)
  • Jan. 28, 2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve press conference on monetary policy
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Jan. 28: Tesla (TSLA), post-market, $8.22

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Jan. 28: Gala DeFi to host an X Spaces ‘Gala Meme Hour’ session.
  • Floki is voting on the final rankings for the FlokiUltras3 Guerrilla Marketing Competition, inviting the community to order the top 20 shortlisted entries based on creativity and impact. Voting ends Jan. 28.
  • CoW DAO is voting to renew team grants. This includes a 5% base allocation over four years and up to 10% in performance incentives linked to revenue milestones. Voting ends Jan. 28.
• Unlocks
  • Jan. 28: SIGN$0.03789 to unlock 17.68% of its circulating supply worth $11.85 million.
  • Jan. 28: JUP$0.2073 to unlock 1.7% of its circulating supply worth $10.49 million.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 28: Moonbirds (BIRB) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, and others.
  • Jan. 28: SuperRare to launch the VORGIANS profile picture collection.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 1 of 3: WallStreetBets Live (Miami, Florida)

Market Movements

• $BTC is up 0.25% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $89,204.11 (24hrs: +0.84%)
• $ETH is down 0.21% at $3,005.80 (24hrs: +4%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.53% at 2,754.58 (24hrs: +2.47%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 5 bps at 2.8%
• $BTC funding rate is at 0.0069% (7.5091% annualized) on OKX

• DXY is unchanged at 96.16
• Gold futures are up 3.66% at $5,307.80
• Silver futures are up 6.3% at $112.63
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 53,358.71
• Hang Seng closed up 2.58% at 27,826.91
• FTSE is down 0.3% at 10,176.97
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.12% at 5,987.49
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.83% at 49,003.41
• S&P 500 closed up 0.41% at 6,978.60
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.91% at 23,817.10
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 33,096.40
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.86% at 3,707.69
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.243%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% at 7,029.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.76% at 26,271.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 49,171.00

Bitcoin Stats

• $BTC Dominance: 59.54% (+0.01%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03372 (-0.57%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 902 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.69
• Total fees: 2.3 $BTC / $203,418
• CME Futures Open Interest: 121,380 $BTC
• $BTC priced in gold: 16.9 oz.
• $BTC vs gold market cap: 5.98%
  

Technical Analysis

$DOGE's price has bounced from December lows. (TradingView)

• The chart shows dogecoin's ($DOGE) daily price swings in candlestick format.
• $DOGE's price has bounced from the December low marked by the horizontal line.
• The recovery needs to extend beyond the brief high of 15 cents on Jan. 6. Such a move would confirm a double bottom bullish breakout, indicating a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $210.83 (-1.24%), +0.94% at $212.81 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $69.96 (-1.33%), +3.17% at $72.18
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $33.18 (+6.07%), +1.42% at $33.65
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $34.80 (-2.41%), +2.30% at $35.60
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.52 (+5.41%), +0.19% at $10.54
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.55 (+8.13%), +0.40% at $17.62
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.94 (+4.67%), +1.76% at $20.29
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.27 (+6.67%), +0.23% at $13.30
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $50.90 (+9.27%), -1.16% at $50.31
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $15.48 (+5.16%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $161.58 (+0.62%), +0.27% at $162.02
• Strive (ASST): closed at $0.82 (+4.20%), -0.99% at $0.81
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.99 (+6.50%), -0.20% at $9.97
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.98 (+4.76%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.32 (+2.33%)

ETF Flows

Spot $BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$147.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.34 billion
• Total $BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot $ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$63.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.38 billion
• Total $ETH holdings ~6.06 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• $HYPE token's 30% surge is a story of crypto-traditional market convergence, treasury firm says (CoinDesk): $HYPE surged 30%, outperforming bitcoin, ether and the CoinDesk 20 index by a wide margin.
• Trump Deepens Dollar Woes, Brushing Off Concerns About Slump (Bloomberg): President Donald Trump indicated he’s comfortable with the dollar’s recent decline, helping send the currency to its lowest level since early 2022.
• $BTC, $ETH, $SOL move higher as markets eye Fed, Mag 7 earnings and weaker dollar (CoinDesk): Analysts say bitcoin's rebound from the $86,000–$87,000 zone reflects reduced leverage and short-term stabilization rather than strong momentum as markets brace for Fed guidance and major tech company earnings.
• Exclusive: China gives nod to ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent to buy Nvidia's H200 chips - sources (Reuters): China greenlights three of its largest tech companies to buy Nvidia's intelligence chips, marking a shift in position as the government seeks to balance its AI needs against spurring domestic development.