thecryptobasic.com
$XRP has embarked on the journey toward a two-digit price, after breaking above a multi-year symmetrical triangle and slipping into the fourth phase of the current structure.
For context, this Phase 4 began in July 2024, when $XRP started recovering from the downward trend that pushed its prices to $0.38 at the time. Notably, Phase 4 eventually saw $XRP rise to the $3.66 peak in July 2025 before dropping to the current low below $2 as prices continue to struggle since Q4 2025.
However, while these recent struggles have resulted in increased bearish sentiments among retail investors, market data shows that $XRP remains in Phase 4, which could eventually lead prices toward a new all-time high of around $21.5.
Key Points
- Since June 2017, $XRP has traded within a 4-phase structure that has dictated its price movements over the past nine years.
- $XRP entered Phase 4, the last section of this structure, in July 2024, when it began a recovery push.
- While prices have struggled over the last few months, $XRP has maintained its position within Phase 4.
- Market data shows that $XRP would remain in a bullish position as long as it remains within Phase 4, which targets a peak price of $21.5.
$XRP Follows 4-Phase Structure
CW, a well-known chartist, discussed this target in a recent commentary. Data from his accompanying 3-week chart shows that $XRP began the current 4-phase structure after recovering from the consolidation phase in June 2017.
During Phase 1, $XRP rallied from $0.2476 in June 2017 to a peak of $3.31 by January 2018. Meanwhile, Phase 2 introduced a sharp pullback from this high to a floor price of $0.1140 in March 2020 and then a subsequent rebound to $1.96 by April 2021. In Phase 3, $XRP corrected from $1.96 to the $0.45 low in June 2024.
Notably, Phase 4, which represents the current and last section of the structure, began in July 2024 as $XRP sought to recover from the $0.45 low. However, this rebound did not gain sufficient momentum until after the U.S. elections in November 2024. During this period, $XRP broke above a symmetrical triangle structure and soared from $0.5 to $3.4 by January 2025.
Phase 4 Targeting $21
$XRP has since collapsed from the $3.4 high but remains within Phase 4. Specifically, after reaching $3.4, $XRP corrected to $1.71 by April 2025 before recovering to $3.6 in July of that year. However, another correction has ensued, with $XRP dropping to the current price of $1.91.
Despite this downtrend, Phase 4 remains in play, with CW identifying a target of around $21.5 as the top of this current phase. Data from his chart shows $XRP already hit the first Phase 4 take profit target of $3.4 in January 2025, but now trades below it. On the road to $21.5, $XRP would have to first reclaim the $3.4 mark before targeting higher levels.
Notably, historical data shows that the first TP of Phase 4 usually aligns with the peak price of Phase 1. In the previous structure, this target hovered around $0.0614, which $XRP reclaimed in April 2017. Shortly after this, it soared to the peak Phase 4 target of $0.3988 by May 2017. CW expects a similar pattern to play out this time.